Microsoft CorpMSFTTOP PICKJan 19, 2026Stock price when the opinion was issued
As of Jul 16, 2026. Market Open.
Buy it, put it away for 10 years, do very well. Suffering from software outflows from large ETFs. Revenue still growing in teens, even better on EPS. Investing a lot in capacity (buy they can afford it), which customers have signed onto for the next several years. Trades at 20x PE, yet nothing's really changed.
Three durable growth engines: Azure, enterprise software, AI monetization. Key is that it keeps turning its installed base into higher-value subscriptions and usage-based revenue, while preserving margins and cash generation. Market's concerned that margins and cash will be pressured as Gen AI gets rolled out through competitors.
Azure remains the clearest growth driver. Key competitive advantage with enterprise software is that one stack bundles infrastructure, security, identity, and data/productivity tools. Raises costs to switch, which provides pricing power. Yield is 0.93%.
The lower MSFT gets, the more he likes it. The valuation keeps falling. He recently bought a position and would add to it now. If it holds, that's a very good technical signal. He loves MSFT, but consider that France will forbid the government using Microsoft Teams. That said, MSFT isn't going anywhere.
His preference is MSFT, and he'd buy today. Valuation is ~20x PE -- very fair valuation for business with good outlook for earnings growth for next 3-5 years. A bit more value than AMZN right now. Business model supports a better compounding over the long run, and generates significantly more FCF. Late to the AI race, and that's the reason for the selloff.
No issues with AMZN. Very well run, targeting new markets. You can't own all the tech companies, so you have to pick your spots.
It has been kind of out of favour but has a track record of innovation. It had the foresight to invest in AI in 2019. It has transitioned to a recurring revenue operation with a monthly subscription system. It can package together a base of suites which gives it a strong competitive moat. It is very profitable with operating margins over 40%. Also has a very strong public cloud business. Capital spending has increased along with all the other big techs but has the flexibility to pull back according to demand. Buy 71 Hold 2 Sell 0
(Analysts’ price target is $630.08)