Microsoft CorpMSFTCOMMENTNov 01, 2013Stock price when the opinion was issued
As of Nov 06, 2026. Market Open.
It's one of the five biggest spenders in capex on data centres. If was the only to say it would trim spending. It had the best report of the three megacaps that reported this week, beating revenues and earnings while Google and Amazon missed both. Azure grew 48% and cash flow was positive. Capex spending for the quarter was much lower than expectations. Their spending will accelerate in the second half of fiscal 2027.
He can't believe the market pushed this down to $400. The story then was that MSFT had too much tied to OpenAI, and that AI would disrupt their software business, Narratives change. MSFT is growing top and bottom line at a huge rate. He's own this since 2012. They will continue to see big earnings growth and deliver enormous free cash flow. Once the data centres are built, the hyperscalers will be the big winners.
He wouldn't but today, but neither would he sell. So much of investing is buying at the right price, and then letting things work. Valuation's a bit rich. Look to add on a pullback. Well positioned on AI. Well diversified. Great balance sheet, lots of cashflow. Important that some of these companies can do massive capex, but not be FCF-negative.
A big believer that the large-cap technology companies essentially reinvent themselves to become more shareholder friendly. They generate a lot of money, so they are more than willing to buy back stock and to increase the dividend. If you own for the dividend, this is very safe. This needs to break out of that range where it is no longer just a stable bricks and mortar technology company but go back to the days when it was a higher growth. The Windows operating system is the biggest franchise and they put their cash from that into things like Xbox, Bing and their service and tools business. If they can keep those parts moving and growing, the valuation will continue to move higher putting the stock somewhere up in the $40 range.