Morgan Stanley (MS)

They report Tuesday morning. Their last quarter was badly panned because their wealth management business did not grow. Can the new CEO change this?

Made the msitake of selling this in October. Targets well over $100. Their businesses are well-diversified. Excellent execution.

Likes the money centre banks. Will do well with a normalized yield curve, as it enhances net interest margins. Fed signalling interest rates coming down should depress the short end of the curve, with the long end maintaining itself somewhat.

The group is trading at about a 30% discount to normalized valuations of around 13.5x earnings. That carries through to book value, trading at discounts to historical norms. He owns JPM, BAC, and MS, and that's where he'd put money.

He regrets selling positions in MS and BAC and wants to get back in. He does want to sell some of his JPM. Wants to return to MS and GS, because he thinks their stock-trading revenue can excel. As for Citi, their revenues are way down, so he'll pass.

Well respected, well run. Refocused on expanding wealth management, and this has done well, making the business more stable. Nothing wrong with it. She owns the well run, diversified JPM instead.

He owns no US banks, everything's been hurt. Investment banking, so it's a proxy for the stock market. Trading below book value. Curve re-steepening is negative for banks until that steepening levels off; we're mid-way through that. It's a bit early, but it wouldn't be bad to own a little bit of US banking right now.

Pays a fine dividend, and they buy back a lot of stock, reducing it by 15% in 10 years. 2022 was a bad year for financials and this year slightly better, but the Fed is done raising rates, so the set-up is good for banks.

He had sold the banks (MS, BAC, but is long JPM) to buy QQQs, and he stands by that rotation. If any banks decline, it would be the regional ones, which he's avoided since the spring crisis. His outlook on the banks is limited upside, given regulations restricting hoarding capital on the balance sheet, which will impede loan growth. Plus, the economy will start of contract. MS and BAC are good companies, but he'd rather buy the debt of these stocks, because their balance sheets will be fortified.

Sold it after 6 years. Great management. But the macros conditions don't favour the big US banks (except JPM). There's been huge growth in private credit, so how will the banks grow organically? He doesn't see it. It's better to own the debt of MS than the stock.

Has a huge retail and commercial lending base and cushions the company when investment banking and wealth management are weak. Has a big international reach.

Current share price a good place to buy.
Investment banking & wealth management business units expected to improve.
Expecting ~$100 share price going forward.
Comfortable with management team.
Good long term investment.

Capital market activity may return next year (IPOs) to benefit GS. Last quarter, their revenues have been down 8%. He prefers Morgan Stanley for being a pure play, even though financials are not a great place being late-cycle.

Largest wealth manager in the US, having scaled back from investment banking and trading. Lots of free cashflow, in great financial shape, steady dividend increases, hefty dividend. Core holding. More stable and conservative than JPM, which he also owns. Yield is 4%.

He doesn't trust the regional banks, expecting more consolidation. Prefers big banks, so he's holding onto this. In Q4, he expects the S&P to make a new high, so trading revenues for the banks will be strong. You have to own financials now.