Opinions David Burrows
Morgan StanleyMSTOP PICKFeb 14, 2017
David BurrowsStock price when the opinion was issued
As of Jun 05, 2026. Market Open.
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Reported last week and it was, arguably, the best of the bunch. Astounding ROE of 27%. Wonderful execution. Wealth management doing really well, especially with recent acquisitions. Capital markets business will do really well with huge IPOs coming up.
Gordon Reid
Likes a lot of the large US banks. He owns JPM and GS.
This name is also a leader. Down ~13% from recent highs, but nothing to be overly concerned about. Stock's still making higher highs and higher lows. 200-day MA moving higher, with stock price well above, as is the 200-week MA. Healthy signs.
He likes US banks. Loan growth is up as is capital markets activity and investment activity.
Julien Nono-WomdimHas $5 trillion AUM. Have a strong wealth management business through tuck-ins, being half their business. They trade at 17x PE and a 17% ROE. Are positioned to do well.
(Analysts’ price target is $187.80)Gordon Reid
He's going to pull the lens back, as he likes to look at things from a macro perspective. In 2020, we went from falling interest rates for 40 years to what is likely rising long-term interest rates for the next 25-30 years. That benefits banks in particular.
If you look at the XLF in the US, after going nowhere from 2008-2021, it finally made a new high. Beginning of a new long-term bull market that probably goes on 10-12 years. During that time, earnings go up and so do dividends. The multiple expands.
US banks have had a wonderful year. He's used JPM as a Top Pick many times, and he also owns MS. 95% of global banks are trading above a rising 200-day MA. Don't be afraid of a bull market. These are dividend growth stocks, and when there's inflation a rising stream of income is pretty attractive to offset the rising cost of living.
David BurrowsIn terms of quality, hard to argue against JPM -- best of breed. GS is tops on the investment banking side. He's overweight US banks.
Gordon ReidHe bought it. The debt-to-equity ratio is a little better than GS, so he prefers MS. Owns both.
Joe TerranovaThe capital markets banks are all performing really well. That tells you something about the rest of the market; if investors are focusing on these banks, then they must have a view that lots of deals will be done and that capital markets provide a good opportunity. This name is more investment management than trading, but still very attractive.
A generation ago, their business was fixed income and capital markets. Now, 50% of business is wealth management. They have a toe in the water in capital markets, which should grow in the second half of this year with more M&A activity.
Gordon Reid
Since 1841, US equities have returned about 9% a year, versus bonds of about 05%. However, there are 2 extended periods; 1910 to 1945, and 1981 to 2016, where bonds and stocks gave roughly the same results, with less volatility in bonds. It’s no wonder that in both cases people got to like bonds a lot. In the late 1940s, when stocks started to outperform for the next 35 years, they went up 5 for 1. We have just come out of a period where bonds and stocks gave the same return. So arguably for the rest of our investing lives, we may see stocks outperform by a multiple in bonds. This one is a leader in institutional equities. 43% of their revenues come from wealth management. The wealth management business is the 2nd biggest in the US. This is a business that is firmly focused on domestic equity. The company has quietly transformed itself into a wealth management machine. Dividend yield of 1.74%. (Analysts’ price target is $48.35.)