Morgan StanleyMSTOP PICKFeb 14, 2017Stock price when the opinion was issued
As of Oct 23, 2026. Market Open.
After reporting, shares fell 1.8% and down 2.8% today. They just reported: revenues beat, investment and trading were up 18%, also beating, equities were strong, though fixed income missed. Wealth management grew 10% and beat, and investment beat though fell 12%. Problem is, investors are worried about inflation.
Mergers are increasing, and banks like MS makes advisory fees from them. Also, the banks have been rallying since oil slumped, and will benefit further from rising interest rates, which appears will happen later this year. Plus, hyperscalers may need to keep borrowing money to keep competing with each other.
Since 1841, US equities have returned about 9% a year, versus bonds of about 05%. However, there are 2 extended periods; 1910 to 1945, and 1981 to 2016, where bonds and stocks gave roughly the same results, with less volatility in bonds. It’s no wonder that in both cases people got to like bonds a lot. In the late 1940s, when stocks started to outperform for the next 35 years, they went up 5 for 1. We have just come out of a period where bonds and stocks gave the same return. So arguably for the rest of our investing lives, we may see stocks outperform by a multiple in bonds. This one is a leader in institutional equities. 43% of their revenues come from wealth management. The wealth management business is the 2nd biggest in the US. This is a business that is firmly focused on domestic equity. The company has quietly transformed itself into a wealth management machine. Dividend yield of 1.74%. (Analysts’ price target is $48.35.)