Gerald Allaye-Chan Manulife Financial MFC-T BUY ON WEAKNESS May 29, 2009

Good growth in Asia. Asset management becoming a more important part of the business for all lifecos. Probably trading at higher end of historical levels. More room to go. Solid holding as long as it continues to execute. Yield is relatively attractive, increases over time.

A year it ago, it traded at a dirt cheap 6-7x PE. Many thought it was left for dead with bad insurance contracts. In Dec. 2023, they sold a lot of those contracts at a decent price. That's when he entered this. But he recently sold this to buy TD (which has more upside).

Markets are tough and can be counter-intuitive. Great beat, and the sector is sheltered from tariffs. Free of negative surprises, unlike SLF. Street models 12.5% EPS growth, trading at 9.34x -- cheaper and more compelling than banks.

The answer could be that the good news was already baked into the stock. He'd take it as a really good sign that it's actually up in the past week of a really tough market. More to go, but doesn't go in a straight line. He's long this one.

Really likes. Attractive valuation. Down ~11% from highs last November. Pretty nice dividend of 4.3%. Holding above the 200-day MA, which is moving upwards. Insurance space gives you decent growth with protectiveness of the dividend.

(Note the short timeframe.)  Caught up in sentiment against the financial sector. In the group, insurance companies have actually held up fairly well (haven't gone down as much as everything else). 

Nice Q4 beat. Provides some shelter from tariffs. Still trades at slight discount of 9x, growing ~12%. Nice dividend. Competitor SLF is the one that's had 2 negative surprises in a year. 

Still a buy, but be aware that investors are flocking to this area, so it could eventually drop. Great compounder from here for the next 5 years.

Wonderful company. He got stopped out once tariffs hit. Doesn't think any less of the business. Fundamentally in the right spot. Trading below the 200-day MA, and not many good things happen below that technical line in the sand. Exposure to China has probably hurt in the near term.

Still a good stock. In December, he sold and put proceeds into TD and POW because they were better buys. He'll often do these switches.

Operations in Hong Kong are an area of growth. China's autocratic economy is a risk. Its business involves local services, so shouldn't be affected by tariffs. Risk is animosity curtailing demand; but MFC is also Canadian, not just US. Slower economic growth will impact all companies, including life insurers. Tends to be more defensive; she's sticking with Canadian banks rather than lifecos.

Insurance companies have been better insulated from tariffs. Interest rates going up would help them. Really nice beat on Q4, really clean earnings (uncharacteristic after the last 20 years). Growing 12%, trading at 8.2x. Yield is 4%, growing ~8% a year. Asset sales. 

Could still be a Top Pick in an environment like this.