Geoff Scott Manulife Financial MFC-T DON'T BUY Mar 20, 2018

Really likes. Attractive valuation. Down ~11% from highs last November. Pretty nice dividend of 4.3%. Holding above the 200-day MA, which is moving upwards. Insurance space gives you decent growth with protectiveness of the dividend.

(Note the short timeframe.)  Caught up in sentiment against the financial sector. In the group, insurance companies have actually held up fairly well (haven't gone down as much as everything else). 

Nice Q4 beat. Provides some shelter from tariffs. Still trades at slight discount of 9x, growing ~12%. Nice dividend. Competitor SLF is the one that's had 2 negative surprises in a year. 

Still a buy, but be aware that investors are flocking to this area, so it could eventually drop. Great compounder from here for the next 5 years.

Wonderful company. He got stopped out once tariffs hit. Doesn't think any less of the business. Fundamentally in the right spot. Trading below the 200-day MA, and not many good things happen below that technical line in the sand. Exposure to China has probably hurt in the near term.

Still a good stock. In December, he sold and put proceeds into TD and POW because they were better buys. He'll often do these switches.

Operations in Hong Kong are an area of growth. China's autocratic economy is a risk. Its business involves local services, so shouldn't be affected by tariffs. Risk is animosity curtailing demand; but MFC is also Canadian, not just US. Slower economic growth will impact all companies, including life insurers. Tends to be more defensive; she's sticking with Canadian banks rather than lifecos.

Insurance companies have been better insulated from tariffs. Interest rates going up would help them. Really nice beat on Q4, really clean earnings (uncharacteristic after the last 20 years). Growing 12%, trading at 8.2x. Yield is 4%, growing ~8% a year. Asset sales. 

Could still be a Top Pick in an environment like this.

They've repositioned themselves in good growth areas. Maybe questions about their exposure to Asia (so does SLF-T), but Asia offers good growth potential. No problem this being a core holding.

Fairly insulated from tariffs, it's more the economic exposure that is a risk. As markets get more volatile, revenue from its asset management side will go down if markets go down. Between MFC, SLF and GWO, he'd pick GWO.

The insurance business, in general, is not expanding dramatically. You get the nice dividend, which means they're not investing in the business. And they don't invest in the business because there's really nowhere to put their money for a high ROIC. Highly regulated, higher interest rates have a negative impact.

For him, the dividend is not a reason to buy things. Doing a good job, but there are better places to invest in financial services.