Stockchase Opinions

Darren Sissons MONDELEZ INTERNATIONAL INC Common Stock MDLZ-Q DON'T BUY Mar 04, 2025

Buying Hershey's will be a large purchase for them. MDLZ is attractively priced, but he wouldn't buy. He prefers Lindt, which has outperformed. But he likes staples at this part of the cycle.

$65.780

Stock price when the opinion was issued

Consumer Products
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BUY

Still likes it. Concern now is that with higher interest rates and rising unemployment, consumers are being more price-conscious. Company has acknowledged this in its biscuit category. 

Reassessing pricing and packaging. EMs are about 40% of sales, she sees higher growth there. Selling assets, redeploying proceeds in higher-growth adjacent categories.

BUY

Owns shares and would recommend buying. Global consumer goods powerhouse. Strong brand names with sticky adoption rates. Ability to generate profits despite higher chocolate prices. Would recommend holding for the long term. Ability to pass on rising costs to consumers. 

DON'T BUY

International snack giant. 200-day MA is sideways to slightly negative, stock price is now below it. Fundamentals show only mid-single-digit earnings growth, paying 20x for it. Cost pressures, margin compression. Intense competition. Foreign currency has not helped.

For a consumer staples name, look at Loblaw or COST.

COMMENT

It is a large consumer products company and has gone though re-structuring. Pays a rock solid dividend. Although high quality it is low growth so he sees better better value in the field.

PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Oct 30/23, Up 2%)

Limited private-label competition. During pandemic, good at passing cost increases along to consumers without demand falling off. Concerns about impact of weight-loss drugs has abated. But huge increase in cocoa prices, at 47-year highs. Still happy to own.

DON'T BUY

Trades at 18x PE, with 5% growth. He likes growth at a reasonable price, so 5% doesn't cut it. Stock's moved below 200-day MA, which is falling. Short-term technicals look weak. Demand for GLP-1 drugs will impact a lot of companies in the food business.

DON'T BUY

These companies have traded off on the fears of GLP-1. Volumes starting to drop. Growth metrics just don't support the valuations in the space. About 60% of revenue from international sources, so strong USD is a major headwind.

DON'T BUY

Biggest issue is growth. Well run, amazing brands. Valuation north of 20x, yet growth profile not as robust. Economic uncertainty, bit of weakness in discretionary spending.

PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Mar 21/24, Down 3%)

Down YOY, but has actually held up well during recent market uncertainty. 40% of revenue from EMs, which tend to have stronger long-term, secular growth. Cocoa prices spiked, and chocolate is 30% of its business, so they guided earnings down. Long-term outlook still attractive, expanding into adjacent categories.