McDonaldsMCDCOMMENTJun 18, 2018Stock price when the opinion was issued
As of Jun 04, 2026. Market Open.
Half its business is NA, half international. Not a huge amount of growth, perhaps 5-6%. EPS growth of 7-8%. Opens a few new stores a year. More of a landlord, with over 90% franchised. Very high ROIC.
Only 20x PE today, down from historically high 20s. In his world, it's a staple not discretionary :) Yield is 2.65%.
Was downgraded last Friday and today over fears they won't meet expectations this quarter, including disappointment over MCD's new chicken strips dish, that it won't turn things around. Rather, customer prefer heavily breaded chicken and the find these strips ugly. However, history says it has never paid to downgrade MCD. It's the king, offering good value and is highly well-run. The CEO will figure it out.
Fast food is cyclical based on gas prices. Restaurant sales took off when gas prices plunged in 2014. Also, restaurant haven't seen earnings growth vs. other consumer discretionary spaces. He doesn't see a catalyst for this stock to
improve. That said, it's had a good, long history and their foreign sales are a tailwind.