Michael Hakes - CFA, MBA McDonalds MCD-N DON'T BUY May 09, 2025

Money is tight for many Americans and even fast food is now considered "discretionary" spending because prices are too high. Nobody expected this, but it's a real now. McDonald's now realizes this and will extend the $5 Meal Deal into September, says the CEO at the Q2 conference call.

Consumer staples have been performing under the radar and will continue.

He added at $250 a month ago. With inflation the lower income population shifted more to eating at home and away from fast food restaurants. McDonalds is now moving to more value priced deals and encouraging people to shift to digital offerings, apps, to increase the use of a loyalty program. McDonalds has a unique business model in that it owns the land that the franchises sit on. 40% of its revenue comes from rent from the franchises.       Buy 28  Hold 13  Sell 0

Their decision to extend their $5 meal beyond the summer was applauded by consumers and Wall Street alike as consumers are pushing back against higher prices. Smart.

MCD reported an E. coli outbreak from its quarter pounder burger across 10 US states. The outbreak started between late September and mid-October. MCD has temporarily stopped using certain ingredients in affected areas. The stock fell sharply the day following the news, and it is currently down 5% (an $11B market cap loss) from just prior to the news.  

We do not feel that the outbreak warrants an $11B loss to the stock, particularly over the long-term, but the stock has run up nicely over the past few months, and this could partially be profit-taking in conjunction with the news release. We would prefer to see the stock find a floor before entering a position, but over the long-term, we would be comfortable holding the name.
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It recovered a few dollars today after falling on the illnesses caused by the Quarter Pounder. We don't want that gain. Rather, we want upside on a good quarter--they report tomorrow. 

It was over bought to begin with before the recent difficulties. It is in a trading range so if it hit $260 or $270 he would buy it.

He trimmed it last year due to continued cost pressures and valuation. Is worried about sales growth stagnating and more competition.

They report Thursday. Restaurants have struggled because of high prices, but MCD rolled out some cheaper offerings and customers responded, he hopes.