McDonaldsMCDCOMMENTNov 09, 2016Stock price when the opinion was issued
As of Jun 05, 2026. Market Open.
Half its business is NA, half international. Not a huge amount of growth, perhaps 5-6%. EPS growth of 7-8%. Opens a few new stores a year. More of a landlord, with over 90% franchised. Very high ROIC.
Only 20x PE today, down from historically high 20s. In his world, it's a staple not discretionary :) Yield is 2.65%.
Was downgraded last Friday and today over fears they won't meet expectations this quarter, including disappointment over MCD's new chicken strips dish, that it won't turn things around. Rather, customer prefer heavily breaded chicken and the find these strips ugly. However, history says it has never paid to downgrade MCD. It's the king, offering good value and is highly well-run. The CEO will figure it out.
The fast food restaurant industry is very competitive. This stock has been struggling lately, which was partly on changing tastes in the US, and on diminishing returns. These companies sometimes get growth on product cycles, and they got them for a while on global expansion, but this is a very mature fast food company that exists globally now. They might have a few more places to expand, but fundamentally their business growth should be tied generally to the economic growth where they exist.