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Ian Ainsworth Lucent Technologies LU-N DON'T BUY Jan 20, 2005

Like Nortel, it faces slow growth in the telecom industry. Faced with declining business in wire-line. People are moving to wireless and IP networks, voice over IP for example. Doing well in wireless but because of wireline, revenue growth is very slow. Trades at 2 X revenues which is pretty high historically.

Ian Ainsworth

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$3.280

Stock price when the opinion was issued

Telecommunications

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HOLD

Looked like it was dead, but have acgtually turned around a fair bit. Not making much money and haved an enormous pension liability. If telecoms stay good, it'll be OK.

TOP PICK

Looks interesting. Finally getting their act together and showing a lot of positive momentum. Very fairly valued.

DON'T BUY

A fallen angel. Hasn't been as strong in technology or techology innovations as Nortel. Has to deal with some accounting issues. Doesn't see much opportunity here. Doesn't see a huge surge in spending or pricing for the sector.

DON'T BUY

Heavy competition with suppliers, no money to be made here.

DON'T BUY

This is a valuation play with very, very low valuations.

DON'T BUY

Recent quarterly earnings were OK, but didn't blow anyone away. In a difficult sector along with Cisco (CSCO-Q) and Nortel (NT-T). It's hard to grow profits. There's a huge number of share outstanding. To get the earnings up to $0.50 a share is a long hard road.

DON'T BUY

The issues that face this company and Nortel (N-T) is that they have never consolidated, but the companies they supply have. Their margins are being squeezed.

DON'T BUY

Has done a better job than Nortel (NT-T) in recovering but it's a tough end market. They've had to merger to consolidate the market which was massively overbuilt. Still a lot of headwinds.

SELL

It loses too much money.

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Ian Ainsworth Lucent Technologies LU-N DON'T BUY Jan 20, 2005

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