Stock price when the opinion was issued
Doesn't own either. Kinross has historical issues trying to right the ship, doing better recently.
For ELD, a very high 60% of NAV is exposed to development risk. Recent mine is financed and built, but there's still execution risk. Trades at a discount on geopolitical risk too.
His preference is AEM, with one of the best teams and one of the best executions he's seen over the last decade.
We think K is an OK solid miner and recent quarterly results were strong. The company does have decently high debt with a net debt balance of $1.8B, but debt/equity ratio is only 0.36x which makes us less concerned. Free cash flows have been rising over the last few years and revenues have been growing quite nicely as well. We think it is still worth it to hold onto K given the company's progress in its drilling campaign and the recent strength of gold. It has had some issues in the past with mines but these have been largely cleared up. It also had some Russian exposure but these assets were sold in 2022.
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Problem with the gold sector is that a lot of the people in the industry are mavericks and can be too optimistic. When things are going really well, that is often when they do takeovers and take on a lot of debt. When gold comes down in price, and things are tougher, that means they are in a worse financial position. Debt on this company’s balance sheet is just brutal. If it got down to $3-$4, he could be looking at it more carefully but right now they are going to get less in terms of revenues.