Don Vialoux Interfor Corp IFP-T COMMENT Feb 12, 2016

If IFP can meet earnings estimates it is very cheap. Debt is still higher than most, but in a rally investors tend to ignore debt. Thus it can be a good trader. Fires can be both good and bad for the industry. Impacted companies of course can be hurt, but prices can also rise if a wide area is affected by fire. But this can be short-lived, as salvage logs can hit the market shortly after a fire. In 2021's fires, IFP had a net positive impact but its was very short term. 
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Demand for lumber will continue to increase.
Short term weakness in housing (recession) not a concern for long term investors.
Expecting performance for long term investors. 

Wood products sector doing well, but IFP not performing. Better names in the sector to own. Would not recommend buying. 

TOL is one of the biggest homebuilders in the US, and a leading indicator. When it starts to go, as it has in the last few days, it's usually good for the lumber stocks.

Homebuilding stocks in the US have been going straight up, but Canadian forestry stocks have been going the other way. WFG has done the best in holding its share price.

IFP and CFP have really started to bottom on the charts. He hasn't done enough digging to know who has a better earnings profile. But looking at the charts, one of these might be a good bet to catch up to WFG and to the US homebuilders. Lower interest rates will have an impact as well.

Whole sector can be volatile. Nice run since July, when homebuilders picked up substantially. Getting above $19 was significant. Big spike today. Don't want to see it break below $15. Will have trouble between $22-25, so might spend some time there chewing through the supply (as people get out to get their money back).

BC softwood has always been a target of tariffs. This group has been expanding operation in the US to lessen the impact. IFP has the highest percentage of production in the US. Contrary to Trump, Americans indeed need Canadian lumber -- 23% of it comes from B.C. Tariffs will make lumber more expensive to Americans, though American lumber companies will make more money.

It has a higher level of production in the U.S. so would be less affected by tariffs than other Canadian lumber companies. The U.S. needs Canadian lumber and one quarter of production from B.C. goes to the U.S., -  but lumber is still needed for B.C.

It is a pure play lumber producer. Forest stocks are down because the housing market in the U.S. is quite weak. 50% of the lumber they manufacture and sell is in the U.S. Watch for interest rates in the U.S. coming down which would be good for housing. If you own it, hold at least some of your shares, maybe all of them.