Opinions
Peter Hodson
Home Capital Group
HCG-T
PAST TOP PICK
Aug 03, 2016
$28.810
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BUY
What is interesting about them is that they came through mortgage hell in 2008 with barely a ripple. It has also emerged from COVID-19 issues with barely a ripple. It is very cheap compared to its long term book value of $45. The fair market value is huge and the balance sheet is fine. He wishes they would institute a dividend that would give investors more comfortable that everything is fine. He thinks deferred mortgage payments will not be an issue for them. In a recovery, it will do very well.
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STRONG BUY
A few years ago, it was one of his beloved stocks until it got slammed by comments from the U.S. and OSC. It has since rebounded. Its fair market value is 154% higher than the current price. If it can break out from the current $45 price, this will enjoy a nice upside. They are also buying back a lot of shares, which he thinks is stupid; raise the dividend instead.
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DON'T BUY
If you want to own a lender, please own Canadian bank stocks instead. HCG and others don't have the same access to capital, so they can get caught in a liquidity squeeze. Borrowers pay a higher rate of interest. If housing market has a hiccup, HCG would be more exposed than the banks.
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(A Top Pick Aug 4/15. Down 7.64%.) Feels sorry for this company. They actually do a pretty decent job. ROE is 16%. Came in with earnings last week of $0.99 and missed $1.07 estimate. It trades at about 7X PE. Earlier this year they raised their dividend 9% and bought back $150 million worth of stock. Meanwhile they haven’t issued a new share in over 10 years, and yet the stock continues to languish.