Hudbay Minerals (HBM.TO) Buy, Sell or Hold

Hudbay Minerals (HBM.TO)

37.06

-0.73 (1.93%)

as of Sep 24, 2026, 2:29:27 pm Market Open.

273 watching

COMMENT

Modelling 229% EPS growth from 2021-2023. Time to buy cyclical stocks is when it's expensive, not when they are cheap. Prices have come down a lot because the Chinese board has recommended to do something about high commodities prices.

BUY

One of his favourites in the group. Peru election could have a modest impact. Manitoba Covid shutdown would be temporary. Considerably more optionality in the last few years. Proving more reserves. Extremely well positioned. Back to mid-teens or higher in the next couple of years.

BUY

Commodities were in a 10-year bear market and only recently reversed. FCX has been the leader, and has just pulled back and is set for another leg up. He also owns FM. All of these will benefit, as we're in a deficit of copper and will be for quite some time. EVs use more copper than traditional vehicles. Should be core in a portfolio.

TOP PICK

It's finally coming into their own. Their flagship mine is performing extremely well while a satellite pit is ramping up for production. He expects more gold and zinc production out of Manitoba. There's been a lift in energy prices in anticipation of the reopening. If they get the production permits for Rosemont, it'll be a huge catalyst. They just refinanced $600 million in debt which shows that their bankers have faith in this company. he expects many upward revisions for HBM. (Analysts’ price target is $11.96)

BUY

Haven't bought it yet but is watching it. Have it as a buy. A very diversified company and would look at the overall exposure. It is global with activities in Peru and Canada. It is positive on a long term basis. Would consider it. (Analysts’ price target is $12.00)

BUY

It has been correcting similar to other copper stocks. You want to see some healthy corrections so this is normal. Earnings are set for this week. Copper is part of the green energy solution and should profit from infrastructure spending. A name that he likes and this is the time to own names like this.

DON'T BUY

Analysts see a target of $4.25. He is more cautious based on how vibrant the economy will be. Their business is focused on base metals like copper. Commodities will likely be in a sideways range for some time to come. Earnings are negative and expected to be down over 100% this year. This is not an active purchase candidate for him. He suggests owning gold stocks instead. (Analysts’ price target is $4.25)

DON'T BUY

Buy Keyera instead? He briefly owned this. An activist last year changed management, which didn't work for him. He doubts they'll get a Tuscon permit for their Rosemont copper mind in the States, given activists opposing it. As for Keyera, it's an apples and oranges talk--very different companies. But Keyera is a stronger company financially, so it'd be an uptrade.

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DON'T BUY

2019 was a bad year, losing top management and a key growth project, Rosemont, has been halted by a court order. But their Manitoba zinc operations are fine. But Peruvian operations are troubled, though they have reached a settlement there. Production going forward may be flat or decline.

COMMENT

Effected by the coronavirus? The coronavirus has effected the entire space, but HBM has fallen since late-2017 with two spikes up in its chart. In the last six months, it's fallen further to $3.60 with support at this level. Base metals pick up in March (seasonality), though. HBM must tournaround or it will fall below $3, per late-2015 levels.

PAST TOP PICK

(A Top Pick Feb 26/19, Down 55%) This is nothing but ugly and didn't work out. Sometimes things change that you didn't anticipate. He sold last July. Sometimes your first loss is your best loss. It continued to go down.

PAST TOP PICK

(A Top Pick Feb 14/19, Down 36%) Their mine in Arizona is running into delays. This is really a call on copper prices. Copper prices are starting to rebound and with housing construction accounting for 40% of copper demand, the recent uptick in housing starts is also supportive. We could see another leg up on this run. It is currently neutral for him, but he will watch for upward price momentum.

SELL

As a pure trend guy, this has been in a gently sloping downtrend for a while. The lows have been getting gently lower, and the highs gently higher. Might rally back a bit, or you just say there's another bus.

HOLD

Legal hurdles? A play on copper and he has been a long term holder. The proxy fights from last year are over. There is some issue about permitting on the upcoming US project. He thinks it will be approved longer term, but it may take longer. With all the turmoil in the world and given we are near an end of a bull cycle, this is a good time to get into base metals. What he needs to see is more investment in industrial production. You will have to be patient. He will continue to hold it.

WAIT

Dispute it coming down, it could go down further. Institutions usually don’t hold stocks cheaper than $5. In this case, wait for it to tick back up in consolidation.

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Hudbay Minerals (HBM.TO)