Alphabet IncGOOGHOLDNov 05, 2025Stock price when the opinion was issued
As of Jul 10, 2026. Market Open.
Fears that AI would eat its lunch. Harder for Anthropic to monetize a new tool than for GOOG to take AI and apply it to a business model that it already monetizes. Muscle memory of the populace gravitates to GOOG to find information. Probably thrives in the new AI world, until something more disruptive comes along.
AI monetization is happening, and AI Mode has been a game changer. Stronger cloud growth (revenue grew 63% YOY last quarter, tremendous), broader monetization across platforms. Search and advertising remain strong, lots of cashflow. Also a great ecosystem.
Good growth, but relatively decent valuation. Yield is 0.25%.
A year ago, consensus was that Search was going to die. Seems ridiculous now. Gemini is overtaking ChatGPT. Data centre business is growing faster than before. Still not that expensive. He hasn't sold any shares yet, but may take some off the table from the long-term holding and put toward one of the Mag 7 laggards.
An interesting one. A lot of people are discussing overvaluation of AI stocks, and this is a great example. Yet it's still among the top 5 holdings in his fund, even though average price target is ~$264 (below trading price today). Everything in all of its business units is singing along at 100 mph.
(Analysts’ price target is $264.75)Expects it to go higher and expects analysts to raise targets, but he doesn't want to trade out of it. So his team uses those mental trailing stops, without hardwiring it into the platform. Support should be down around $265; if it were to float down through that, he'd probably lighten up a bit.
Current levels make him kind of nervous, but it's just such a fantastic company.