Alphabet IncGOOGTOP PICKMay 27, 2025Stock price when the opinion was issued
As of Jul 10, 2026. Market Open.
Fears that AI would eat its lunch. Harder for Anthropic to monetize a new tool than for GOOG to take AI and apply it to a business model that it already monetizes. Muscle memory of the populace gravitates to GOOG to find information. Probably thrives in the new AI world, until something more disruptive comes along.
AI monetization is happening, and AI Mode has been a game changer. Stronger cloud growth (revenue grew 63% YOY last quarter, tremendous), broader monetization across platforms. Search and advertising remain strong, lots of cashflow. Also a great ecosystem.
Good growth, but relatively decent valuation. Yield is 0.25%.
A year ago, consensus was that Search was going to die. Seems ridiculous now. Gemini is overtaking ChatGPT. Data centre business is growing faster than before. Still not that expensive. He hasn't sold any shares yet, but may take some off the table from the long-term holding and put toward one of the Mag 7 laggards.
If you break this up into parts, those parts would be worth more than the sum. The great fear is over search, given chatGPT's threat. About 55% of GOOGL's revenues come from search, but their informational and commercial search is only 40% of all revenues. So maybe 25% of overall revenues are at risk. But YouTube, android and cloud segments are performing very well. You pay 17-18x PE but offers double-digit growth.
(Analysts’ price target is $201.74)