Alphabet IncGOOGCOMMENTMay 09, 2025Stock price when the opinion was issued
As of Jun 04, 2026. Market Open.
A year ago, consensus was that Search was going to die. Seems ridiculous now. Gemini is overtaking ChatGPT. Data centre business is growing faster than before. Still not that expensive. He hasn't sold any shares yet, but may take some off the table from the long-term holding and put toward one of the Mag 7 laggards.
Doing great. Worries about Search becoming obsolete were baseless, though its share of searching will fall. However, the pie will expand and so total revenue will grow. Gemini has a leadership position in AI.
Plus there's YouTube -- about 23% global streaming share and caters to shorter attention spans. Waymo also adds to this very powerful compounder.
Moat is pretty phenomenal. Strongest pillar are the networks. Largest index of "intent" data -- what people want right now. That data allows them to target ads. 70% of the world's operating systems are Android.
Sheer scale of its infrastructure lets them run massive AI models at a much lower unit cost. His 12-month price target is $378. Yield is 0.25%.
They won't sit still (and could buy a competitor), and Gemini is highly respected, but the company hasn't promoted it well. There is opportunity, but most of their revenue is coming from traditional advertising on Google search--that's a problem. YouTube is fantastic generating lots of ad revenue. Also, how do you make money off chatGPT? Maybe this problem is already priced into GOOGL, since its PE has come down.