Alphabet IncGOOGPAST TOP PICKApr 21, 2025Stock price when the opinion was issued
As of Jul 10, 2026. Market Open.
Fears that AI would eat its lunch. Harder for Anthropic to monetize a new tool than for GOOG to take AI and apply it to a business model that it already monetizes. Muscle memory of the populace gravitates to GOOG to find information. Probably thrives in the new AI world, until something more disruptive comes along.
AI monetization is happening, and AI Mode has been a game changer. Stronger cloud growth (revenue grew 63% YOY last quarter, tremendous), broader monetization across platforms. Search and advertising remain strong, lots of cashflow. Also a great ecosystem.
Good growth, but relatively decent valuation. Yield is 0.25%.
A year ago, consensus was that Search was going to die. Seems ridiculous now. Gemini is overtaking ChatGPT. Data centre business is growing faster than before. Still not that expensive. He hasn't sold any shares yet, but may take some off the table from the long-term holding and put toward one of the Mag 7 laggards.
Always a concern when you're being sued by the US government. Have to see what evolves, GOOG has already said it will appeal, will play out over a number of years. Headline risk is an overhang. Capex for data centres will increase by 40-50%, a surprise to the street.
Cloud grew 30% YOY, healthy, but expectations were for 32% or so. Stock came off. And now the market selloff, which is focused on large-cap tech. Trading at 17x forward PE. Consensus that EPS can grow in the 14-15% range. If earnings can hold, the multiple is very attractive (actually less than the S&P). Reports this week. She'd buy here with new money.