Alphabet IncGOOGTOP PICKOct 17, 2016Stock price when the opinion was issued
As of Jul 13, 2026. Market Open.
Fears that AI would eat its lunch. Harder for Anthropic to monetize a new tool than for GOOG to take AI and apply it to a business model that it already monetizes. Muscle memory of the populace gravitates to GOOG to find information. Probably thrives in the new AI world, until something more disruptive comes along.
AI monetization is happening, and AI Mode has been a game changer. Stronger cloud growth (revenue grew 63% YOY last quarter, tremendous), broader monetization across platforms. Search and advertising remain strong, lots of cashflow. Also a great ecosystem.
Good growth, but relatively decent valuation. Yield is 0.25%.
A year ago, consensus was that Search was going to die. Seems ridiculous now. Gemini is overtaking ChatGPT. Data centre business is growing faster than before. Still not that expensive. He hasn't sold any shares yet, but may take some off the table from the long-term holding and put toward one of the Mag 7 laggards.
He looks for secular structural themes that go on whether or not the economy is getting better. This is right in the centre of digital advertising. Digital advertising is still growing very rapidly and taking market share from traditional broadcast media. This is the thousand-pound gorilla. They have growth in many different areas. You don’t pay a lot for some of the “skunk works” operations they’ve got going on in the background, but that could have real value going forward. This has consolidated over the summer and sitting very close to the highs in a market that is not. This area will grow 10% a year going forward, and their growth is accelerating.