SPDR Gold ETF (GLD)

(A Top Pick Sept 4/12. Down 23.73%.) Lightened up because he didn’t like the action he saw. Intermediate trend got broken earlier this year and he would’ve liked to have seen it base at around $151. If it retested the $116-$117 level, he would probably re-enter.

Does it make sense to hold this in a TFSA and what percentage should it represent of an overall portfolio? Something like this will either be a home run or strikeout. What you have to look at is whether or not you are prepared to have it drop by a fair bit. Even though he thinks gold is pretty close to its bottom, he would not be putting more than 10% into a gold product.

Gold bullion. Gold is very seasonally strong from July through until October. Bullion typically goes up about 4.5% whereas stocks do about 14% over this period.

(Top Pick Jul 26/12, Down 18.05%) He still has some gold producers. He got out and took a loss. May and June it was unpredictable. It has not kicked into seasonal strength the way he predicted it would. If he bought it today he would unload it in October.

July 27 to September 25 is the seasonality for this play. We saw the worse quarter in nearly a century for gold bullion. This is the time period for gold bullion to do well. For the last 3 years it peaked right at September 25.

Has been looking at this one because, when it has dropped as much as it has, he will be keeping an eye on it. If you are going to have this, keep it is a relatively small part of your portfolio, certainly not more than 5%. It’s a very good ETF, bullion based.

(A Top Pick July 26/12. Down 12.87%.) Risk/reward is really good. Chart shows a little bit of a test at $132. Gold tends to have its biggest moves when you have currency fluctuations versus inflation.

Gold. You should own one of the trusts because US holders of ETFs get taxed on capital gains so there is a greater chance of products trading at a premium. He would own it in trust form rather than ETF form.

Summer is usually good for Gold. Don’t invest solely on seasonals. He thinks gold has bottomed. But major support for a year and a half is now broken. There is a risk of the bigger corrections coming into play. Could go to mid-$1100s. You can trade it, selling into upper $1400s for gold.

He cut his position in half on Friday as the key support level broke. He would buy back in now at a half position as we are so over sold right now. The break is big, institutional type trading. There is probably another leg down but there is probably another trading bounce here.

(Top Pick Apr 16/12, Down 5.36%)

Does it make sense to hold this in a TFSA and what percentage should it represent of an overall portfolio? Wouldn’t want this to be the totality of your TFSA. Doesn’t like things where you can’t claim capital losses and this one can be quite volatile. He would not want to have more than 5%-6% of gold in a portfolio.

Gold. Sees a short term risk that the key support around $15.25 gets taken out. Long term we have to be bullish. Seasonals are not bullish until summer time again. You could trade GLD up to a gold price of $16.25.

About 1800 is the big resistance for the last year ago. If we get above that stocks will go too. If we go below about 1650 it would be a negative in his mind.

No problem holding this for long periods of time. Only 10-15% of the ETF is held in paper form. The rest is gold.