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Stock Opinions by John DeGoey

COMMENT
He doesn't follow geopolitics, though he has personal concerns about Iran. Point is, it's noise and it's not a factor in his investing. Gold does well in times of perceived and real war. Gold has had a strong day. His market concern is systemic. The Shiller PE Ratio: PE today is the same as before the market crashed in 1929. The market is frothy, 30% overvalued in Canada, and 50% in America--way above historic averages. "Irrational confidence" explains the current market which is expensive. There's real risk here.
Unknown
COMMENT
A protection strategy assuming a 20% correction before spring? Things can get ugly before they get profit. First, take profits after a fantastic 2019, then reposition your stocks/bonds ratio, buying more bonds to make your target mix (i.e. 70/30 stocks/bonds). Himself, he's moving a third of his equities into inverse products--like an ETF that rises when markets fall (see his top picks). Investors really feel the pain of a drawdown--people are emotional and irrational. So, probably in the next two years, the market will fall and an inverse product will go up. This is playing defence.
Unknown
COMMENT

When you buy an ETF from a BMO or Blackrock, it will be well-capitalized. Don't worry about bid/ask spreads or liquidity. ZCN is the Canadian benchmark. Don't worry about capitalization. ZCN is a plain vanilla product. He prefers an inverse ETF (see top picks).

E.T.F.'s
COMMENT
A good, plain-vanilla product. The covered call is a good defensive strategy; whatever happens at least you get the covered call income. This is perfectly fine. But right now he's worried about the global market--which territory will go down the most in a bear market? He feels we're in the 9th inning of the cycle and expects a bear market sometime. Even a good product like this will lose money if the market turns.
E.T.F.'s
COMMENT

When to use Norbert's Gambit when buying long-term ETFs? On the bond side he uses a global bond product that's currency-hedged, but won't use a hedge on the equity side. Likely, the Canadian dollar will be high around 80 cents and will revert to the mean at 70--those are the goal posts.

Unknown
COMMENT

vs. ZWC ZWC covers the general Canadian market vs. ZWB which covers Canadian banks. If you think banks will do well, ZWB may lag the market, but if the market tumbles, this will fall less.

E.T.F.'s
BUY
He's not a gold bug, but you can play defence with gold. You can go 5-10% gold and be fine playing defence this way.
E.T.F.'s
PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Apr 08/19, Up 2%) He's a long-term EM bull and VEE is his core EM holding. EM has had a middling year. This gives you great diversification around the world, including Korea, Turkey and Mexico and not just the usual suspects.
E.T.F.'s
PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Apr 08/19, Up 3%) Gains have been made recently. Trades are chunky. BHAV capitalizes of investor over-reaction after earnings reports. They lowered their MER. Low volumes, though. He's confident about BHAV long-term.
E.T.F.'s
PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Apr 08/19, Up 7%) ESG investing has become a global rage; pension funds are using it and pushing the market for more ESG products. iShares was the first to release a suite of ESG products (last year). Admittedly, the first year of XSEA has been so-so.
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COMMENT
Cannabis stocks already corrected, but you say markets are 30-50% overvalued. So, what'll happen to weed stocks? If the market drops 20%, few stocks/sectors will survive that (most will fall 20%) and cannabis likely will too. It's still early innings for cannabis.
Unknown
COMMENT
Are bonds better than GICs in terms of income? Bonds come in various forms and geographies vs. GICs are plain vanilla. The main difference is liquidity. To take advantage of a pullback, you can't sell a GIC to suddenly buy, but you can with bonds.
Unknown
COMMENT
Are renewables or healthcare defensive? Both are more defensive than the overall market, so yes. Renewable energy is the biggest mega-trend of our generation. Probably good to stay in these stocks.
Unknown
COMMENT
Selling a condo for $400K, and my pensions would cover the cost of me going into a seniors' home. Where would I put the $400K till needed? Sounds like you don't need that $400K. So, this is money you could give your kids and grandkids, which is an important decision to make. Make sure you can cover your costs and you're finished travelling. You can invest this money, being a little aggressive, to benefit your kids.
Unknown
COMMENT
A 75-year-old holding this. Hold no more than 10% of your portfolio in anything this volatile at this age. It's a fine ETF though.
E.T.F.'s
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