Grande Cache Coal Corp. (GCE.TO) Buy, Sell or…

Grande Cache Coal Corp. (GCE.TO)

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WEAK BUY

Developing a coal project in the west. Stock doesn't look too good on the chart. Costs to produce has been going up. This company has disappointed many times. If the price of coal stays high, they should make a lot of money. Prefers others.

DON'T BUY

Like all commodities, coal prices will go up and down. Being driven by enormous energy demand and by the steel boom. Seeing steel prices dropping because of over capacity. Expect the next round of coal prices will be at lower prices. Thinks the best days are gone.

BUY

Continues to think coal is a good play. Now producing coal which can now be transported.

DON'T BUY

Highly unlikely that they will get back to their high in the $16 area. Will be very levered to energy prices.

DON'T BUY

Ultimately in the long term full cycle, the only winners are companies that have low cost production. This company restarted some moth balled mines that weren't low cost, but are profitable currently due to the extreme spike in metalurgical coal prices. Not a long term investment.

DON'T BUY

Metalurgical coal is very cyclical in nature. A cautionary note on the junior coal companies in Canada:These are mines that are not cost competitive in a commodized industry. If coal prices roll back to $60, these companies won't make any money and will get mothballed again. Extremely high risk.

WEAK BUY

There are some strange difficulties. Deliverability, productivity. Starting a whole new mining game as a result of a massive demand. Would feel more comfortable with Fording (FDG.UN-T). Have to overcome their deliverability problems.

WATCH

Moving coal. Moving from development to production. Likely to be in growth. Longterm has a classic parabolic move on charts.

HOLD

Have good production coming on stream and thinks it will become an income trust, maybe in '06.

DON'T BUY

Pricing of coal has gone through the roof and stocks have probably been over done and will probably come down fast. Would stay out of the way in the near term. Look for China to start exporting steel, especially lower grade steel. Would prefer a Teck Cominco.

BUY

It's been a high flyer. Probably one of the next categories of coal companies in terms of the Canadian market. People are starting to look for a trickle down effect and see what else is out there. Signing some good contracts. They could have some very serious earnings over the next couple of years. Some talk about them becoming an income trust.

BUY

Metalurgical coal prices have gone up strongly. Having a little correction. China can't produce what it has. Should continue strongly.

BUY

Has just made their first shipment to Japan. Coal prices have increased substantially. If they stay where they are, coal stocks should do very well.

WEAK BUY

The negative is that Cdn coal is a 2nd tier asset. A fantastic resource in Australia and South Africa. A start up.

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Grande Cache Coal Corp. (GCE.TO)