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Stock Opinions by Chris Fernyc

BUY
Not concerned with the management change. A very stable business model. Very profitable.
other services
WAIT
A very interesting product. Market demand and feedback seems to be very positive. His big concern would be with valuation and validation of the business model. A little bit unsure as to where it's trading compared to what it's intrinsically worth. Would like to see 1/2 more quarters to see if the trend is truly stable.
oil / gas field services
DON'T BUY
Have got themselves in to a real pickle.Their sector has really had a very tough slog. Have been unprofitable. Has always been the could be, would be, should be down the road companies.
Telecommunications
BUY
A unique business model. They acquire seismic data and then licenses it back to exploration companies. Their library of data is pretty much 100% margin business. Now a trend for companies to go for more 3 dimensional seismic so they are having to invest in the new material. Still to be proven that their 3D library will have staying power.
oil / gas
TOP PICK
Over the last few years has tended to grow a very good market share of the fruit bar business. Long track record of profitability. Vary stable. Debt free with nearly $1 a share in cash. Imports some of their base products from the US, so a stronger Cdn$ is helpful. Presumes they will be consolidated by a larger company.
food processing
DON'T BUY
Recent quarterly results showed they generated on an annualized basis about $1 million pre-tax which gives an extreme multiple of 4 X the market multiple. In electronics and selling in the niche markets with a high infrastucture cost base.
Mining
DON'T BUY
Ultimately in the long term full cycle, the only winners are companies that have low cost production. This company restarted some moth balled mines that weren't low cost, but are profitable currently due to the extreme spike in metalurgical coal prices. Not a long term investment.
other mines
TOP PICK
A technology/drilling company. They only have a fleet of about 20 drilling rigs, they are the #1 driller in terms of the number of meters drilled and in the top 5 in terms of total due to their technology. They have a quicker, lower cost solution for coal bed methane and shallow gas drilling. Growing their fleet out by about 50% per annum.
oil / gas field services
WAIT
Have just done a big acquisition and want to see how this will affect their earnings over the coming quarters. Profitable. Very solid growth profile.
misc industrial products
DON'T BUY
Works in the LED products. Not making a whole lot of money. Has a market capitalization that is quite substantial. Put out a lot of press releases about pretty small contracts. Price is fairly lofty and fairly rich.
transportation equip & components
TOP PICK
Part pharmaceutical and part drug development. Very profitable. Strong balance sheet and lots of cash flow. Generates about US$1.50 free cash flow every year. In a very stable gastro-intestinal market. They're also in-licence some drugs which gives them some pretty good upside. Trading at about US$14 with $1 a share free cash on the balance sheet.
biotechnology / pharmaceutical
BUY
Likes both Calfrac (CFW-T) and Trican (TCW-T). The pressure pumping business and the oil services industry is tremendously profitable. There's only about 4/5 players. It's very rational and necessary.
oil / gas field services
BUY
Likes both Calfrac (CFW-T) and Trican (TCW-T). The pressure pumping business and the oil services industry is tremendously profitable. There's only about 4/5 players. It's very rational and necessary.
oil / gas field services
WEAK BUY
A very interesting company given how specialized their equipment is. The biggest problem he has is that it's an unproven business model. Did 2/3 acquisitions in the last 12 months. They were private companies, so can't get financial information on them.
consulting
TOP PICK
Thinks there's very solid upside over the next year and a half. If there's going to be media consolidation, this is an obvious target. Have 3 main assets, a 51% interest in a film distribution trust, a whole suite of specialty broadcast channels in Canada and 50% owners of the CSI TV series.
Broadcasting
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