Stockchase Opinions

Mike S. Newton, CIM FCSIFannie MaeFNMACOMMENTAug 11, 2009

Fannie Mae (FNM-N) and Freddie Mac (FRE-N) could fade into obscurity but he doesn't think this will happen. US government will do whatever it takes to backstop them. Good for a short-term trade but wouldn't bank on it for the long-term.
$1.07

Stock price when the opinion was issued

Financial Services
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COMMENT

Followed this for years and is on his watch list. In the last 2-3 years, the chart shows a period where it was at $0.30 where it stayed for a long time. Thinks there was a tremendous overreaction by the government because of a lot of problems. Through their history, they have really helped a lot of people buy houses.

DON'T BUY

They have been recapitalized. There are long term issues with government support for them.

COMMENT

Very interesting contrarian play. Government seems to like to destroy things that have worked for a long time. At a certain point in time, they don’t work as well but the question is, what are they going to replace them with. You have to steel yourself to deal with companies like this.

SELL
Nobody knows what these things are really worth. It's like betting at the casino.
DON'T BUY
Need another $10 billion from the US government. There is no equity in this. Pure speculation.
WEAK BUY
Fannie Mae (FNM-N) and Freddie Mac (FRE-N) were mainstays of the US economy but are now penny stocks. Were touted as prime blue chips for years. If you want a high risk, this could be a place to do it. Feels the risk is far less than it was before because US government has not completely moved in. Tremendous upside over time.
SELL
This is only for the faint of heart. If you own he would recommend you sell as a tax loss.
WEAK BUY
They are contemplating a reverse stock split. Management says there is value there. A real possibility it could survive.
WAIT
We need to see the system a little more liquid before buying.
DON'T BUY
It could go to 0 and it is currently like a call option. It has theoretical value.
DON'T BUY
Preferred Shares: Don’t be tempted. Basically, the bailout took about 80% of the capital from them and put it into government hands. Doesn't think there was any provision for the protection of the preferred shareholders.
DON'T BUY
(Market Call Minute.) He was short this stock and covered it today at $1.30.
DON'T BUY
In most people's mind, the US government supports the debt of Fannie Mae (FNM-N) and Freddie Mac (FRE-N) so their debt is secure. The question is, what are they going to do with the stocks, and very importantly the preferred stocks. They are down about 50% and there is a lot of concern that they could get wiped out.
DON'T BUY
The model price is $4.26 using a March balance sheet. Not a private enterprise company but is actually government owned so doesn't follow the rules like everybody else. Has never issued a statement for the last 3 years.