Peter Hodson First Quantum Minerals FM-T DON'T BUY Sep 19, 2025

Too risky for investors. Panama has lots of geopolitical risk. Better options for copper investors. Unsure whether company will survive without operations in Panama. 

He hasn't owned mining companies in a very long time. Shocking to see what's happened to FM with that mine, as it's a great asset. Shows how risky it is to invest in foreign countries outside NA. 

ABX knows how to allocate capital very well. If he were interested in a mining company, this would be the one, as the CEO certainly knows what to do. Eventually, the FM mine has to be up and running. If ABX can run it properly, there's a lot of value that can be created.

Small companies can't exist anymore in this new age of mining, oil/gas. We're going to see a lot of M&A.

The concern is on its mine in Panama and what the government will do. There is an election coming up and there could be a compromise on the opening of the mine. With First Quantum and Franco Nevada both having a stake in this mine there is basically a free option based on the price of their shares. Both companies have upside at this price.

Good assets, but very serious geopolitical problem. At whim of politicians. If you own, worth a lot if they can get it sorted out. He owned, but got stopped out. Higher risk than what he wants to be involved in.

Copper's had an incredible run, plus new Panaman president will reopen negotiations. His analysts assume it'll come back online in 2026. If not, look out. Once bit, twice shy, too much uncertainty. Risk/reward too risky.

Even with change of government in Panama, still black or white Vegas-type bet as to whether the mine will come back on. Wouldn't buy. He'd look at other copper names where it's "when" not "if". Speculative. He owns it, bought it way cheaper, wouldn't buy at these levels.

Lots of uncertainty with its Panama mine, and the issue is at an international tribunal. But that's the risk of the mining business. He prefers and owns HBM in his global equity growth fund.

Looking at it with renewed interest. Political situation has changed, license may be reinstated. That's critical to this company going forward, but also critical for Panama. Multi-decade reserve life, produces 1.5% of world's copper. Cautiously optimistic. Potential outsized upside for a risk-hungry investor.

Good alternative to TECK.B. Balance sheet is a lot more acceptable.