Stockchase Opinions

Fabrice TaylorFortress Global Enterprises IncFGE.TOWATCHAug 07, 2012

Disappointed investors but has a big following for such a small company. Wallpaper mill is doing well, currency paper is struggling, and then pulp is not doing well. Not for him. Watch it for now.

$33.71

Stock price when the opinion was issued

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DON'T BUY

This company is not attractive to him.

HOLD

Facility in Quebec has had its problems. Sold their Dresden facility at a fair price. They are making a lot of corrections to what is going on. A lot of good things are happening but it is a show-me stock. He is going to stick with it and see what happens.

WATCH

We had support but now it has broken it. He needs to see something good happen before stepping in. It could be a value trap.

WATCH

Has been in a 2+ year downtrend which may be breaking right now. He likes to buy after a base breakout. It is attempting to base. If it breaks out then he would buy. There may be a case for trading it right now.

COMMENT

In the penalty box. Had problems getting on track with their dissolving pulp plant in Québec. Just hired a new manager of the plant, which the market likes. Suspects the wallpaper facility in Dresden Germany and the printing facility in Switzerland are both up for sale. If they sell the Dresden plant, it could probably fetch $200-$300 million, which would pay off all debt. Have to show a couple of quarters of consistency.

DON'T BUY

Great idea but there was a lot of execution risks that came into the name. Things that were going to happen in a quarter were pushed back, plants that were supposed to perform at a certain level performed at lower levels, etc., etc. Management is doing their best to turn it around but there are now some very big execution questions over the company.

WATCH

Deep in the penalty box. Problem is that the company has disappointed. Printing side has had a tough time. Need 2-4 months of operation and a strong stomach on this one. Company has incredible torque and leverage to dissolving pulp prices. People aren’t confident in the CEO.

WATCH

There is a probably a recognition trade for the next week or two. Would not touch it yet and then there could be tax loss session so study it then.

WAIT

Cautious on this one. They have 3 basic businesses including dissolving pulp, a mill in Germany that makes wallpaper and a mill that makes paper for currency. 2 of them are not doing particularly well. Dissolving pulp is not bearing fruit yet and the currency paper mill is having some struggles. Too many irons in the fire and needs time to pull it all together.w

COMMENT

They are dynamic and determined. Have done some wonderful purchases of the plants. Using pulp to manufacture rayon. The swing on this stock in the downward direction is very much tied into the pricing of cotton, which seems to be one of the most violent commodities. Very difficult one to gauge at the moment.

BUY

Conrarian Buy. Sold all of his capital cost on the way up. Has a lot of respect for management. Has dissolving pulp mills; Facility for printing in Switzerland is coming back; Wallpaper plant in Germany could be a take-out target. Street is losing faith. Buy under $15.

DON'T BUY

Controversial stock. Has been a highflyer at times and has run into a lot of problems also. Recently has run into some issues. Very aggressive at going into the dissolving pulp business. Haven't shown the ability to execute on their specialty applications. A “show me” story.

COMMENT
In the penalty box. Unfortunately it takes longer and is more costly to put a dissolving pulp mill into production in Thurso, Que. They are at 92% and once they get into full capacity, cash flow should be coming in. Just raised $69 million in a 7% convertible debenture.
COMMENT
This is not a company that he can properly value as they have not produced any earnings. Doesn't fit with this type of value company.