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EnerCare Inc (ECI.TO)

DON'T BUY

They do water heater rentals and they also do sub-metering for multi-resident building. One that he follows but not too much growth in this company and trades at a high multiple.

COMMENT

A strong equity return generator. He likes the business model of water heaters and furnaces, where they are able to return revenues. The stock has been in neutral for the last while. Suspects the market is digesting the fairly heavy gains from 2010 to 2016. Earnings have remained relatively strong. A good, long term holding. Dividend yield of 4.85%.

DON'T BUY

A very stable business. He cautions because there have been mishaps over the last quarters and you want some more buffer on the dividend. They have had some big misses on earnings.

PAST TOP PICK

(A Top Pick Feb 14/17. Up 9%.) He is looking at this company as a long-term hold. Really conservative management team. Good dividend yield. There are more good days ahead. Did a US acquisition last year which they are integrating. They are increasing the percentage of furnaces and air conditioner rentals, which costs money up front, but it gives a good income stream.

BUY

Best known for hot water heater rentals. He likes the business and its stable recurring revenue model, high profitability and a respectable, growing dividend yield. The valuation keeps him away from it and he would wait for more of a pull back to get interested in it. This is not a pro-growth stock and he is currently positioning more for growth.

COMMENT

He can’t do a reading on the seasonal play, but technically it has had a long-term upward trend. This has been in a trading range for about 8 months. If it moved above the trading range at about $18.50, that would be quite positive, but if it broke below around $17, that would be considered a start of a downward trend.

TOP PICK

He likes the cash flow they get from the hot water business to get into smart meters and HVAC service sales and rental in North America. The average age of the air-conditioner in the US is 10 years old, and there are some new standards that are coming in. Meanwhile there are about 50,000 mom-and-pop HVAC service companies in the US. There is a big opportunity to acquire them. This is trading at 10 or 11 times EBITDA, and they can make acquisitions at 4 or 5 times EBITDA. Then they just rinse and repeat. Millennial’s are going to need a lot of houses. Dividend yield of 4.8%. (Analysts’ price target is $24.00)

COMMENT

He likes this company, but doesn't own it. It has become too expensive. They took their sub metering business and improved it. Even on their hot water tanks and servicing side, they have turned from selling units to renting them, which is help their recurring revenues and provided a residual income stream. In 2013 that business was about 11%, and is now about 69%. Trading at around 33X. Would prefer Algonquin Power (AQN-T), which is a similar business. Dividend yield of 4.8%.

PAST TOP PICK

(A Top Pick July/16. Up 27.57%.) He still thinks the street is not giving them enough credit for the sub-metering business. There is a fair amount of excitement about an acquisition they did in the US and Canada, called Service Experts, which is more on the service side for HVAC business.

BUY

Involved with leasing hot water tanks, furnaces, etc. to the consumer. An interesting business model. He could see them getting into solar. After the last earnings report, they sold off fairly heavily, which was a good buying opportunity. Dividend yield of 4.6%.

HOLD

They are doing very well with acquisitions in the US. It is starting to get expensive here. If you like it for the yield then it is perfectly fine to hold it.

BUY

(Market Call Minute.) This is doing everything right. They just developed a whole new suite of products which de-risks companies for different cycles and different times of year. Has 20% EPS.

COMMENT

He has held the name for a very long time. It is a name he really likes and likes the stability of the business. They diversified recently and bought a HVAC business which is much more dependent on the weather. Due to our mild winter weather last year the stock went down. It has rallied since then and he believes it is still a good long term name. Also, believes that the share price may not reflect the sub-metering business they have.

COMMENT

Basically 1/3 sub metering and 2/3 home services. A great business. Their acquisition strategy has really been paying off and has been getting them into the US. On sub metering, they have focused on going to a recurring revenue model by encouraging rentals as opposed to purchasing. He looks on this as a utility.

HOLD

This has done really well, but got a little bit too big over its skis. They’ve had a great growth rate, but missed in the last quarter because of higher costs. Their debt is starting to tick up. The stock is pricey relative to its peers. Not at a level where you want to be buying it.

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