Dollarama Inc.DOL.TOWAITAug 27, 2025Stock price when the opinion was issued
As of Sep 04, 2026. Market Open.
Seeing a series of lower highs and lower lows. Starting to trend lower. One of those have it both ways stocks -- participates when markets are up, a place to hide when markets are down. Story's very positive.
Doesn't mind nibbling here. Pocket of support around $170. If it breaks that, time to reduce exposure. Look for the turnaround before you step back in.
His firm has been scaling back exposure by about half, due to valuation. Very well run. Operations in Australia and Latin America are not really enough to move the needle. Now 25-30x PE, down from 40x forward PE a year ago. Nothing's really changed with the business. Still good growth prospects, if not super-high.
Seeing slight upward technical trend from the March/April pullback. One of the strongest, long-term retail stories in Canada, especially as we might be heading into a tougher environment. Margins under some pressure.
Still room to expand store count meaningfully over time. Becoming more international via Latin American and Australia. Potential upside of ~15%, price target over $200. Yield is 0.27%.
Hasn't been adding due to valuation, and so it's one of his lowest-weight positions. Lots to like, but approaching saturation in Canada. Retail expanding internationally often doesn't work out. Latin American expansion is "so far, so good", but doesn't really move the needle (only 3-5% of profits).
Likes it long term. Expects a better buying opportunity.
Whole witches' brew of things in the global economy that are impacting consumer spending. Higher interest rates, lack of rate cuts. Stock's still 33x PE. Higher valuation stocks tend to get hurt the most with interest rates rising.
On the other side of a phenomenal growth runway. Not opening as many stores, and those returns aren't as good. Mature company, growth hard to come by, so it's going international (less profitable). Don't buy the dip at this point.
Believes he heard a comment that its forward guidance is uncertain, and that could be the reason it's pulled back. Earnings are one thing, but the street looks for forward guidance because that's what's going to happen next.
Longer-term chart is a good picture. On the 1-year chart you can see consolidation. So long as the neckline (a bit over $180) holds, you're fine to own it. He always buys on a positive test of support. Everyone wants to buy as cheaply as possible, but the problem is that it could get cheaper by far. Don't buy until it proves that level of support by bouncing up.