The Panic-Proof Portfolio (Stockchase Research)Definity FinancialDFY.TOPAST TOP PICKApr 09, 2024

Cheaper than it ought to be, not at a multi-year high. Solid beat in underwriting. Synergies from Travelers Canada. Integration is increasing financial flexibility. Company is confident of mid-teen ROEs over next 3 years. Beneficiary of AI efficiencies. 

You should add to the "have-nots" when they're not popular and there's a bit of doubt. Soberly priced at 14x PE for 2027, 26% growth. Growth, value, decent dividend, increasing ROEs. Yield is 1.32%.

P&C insurance, rather than the life insurance of MFC or SLF. Great performer over last 3 years, with its strategy to acquire smaller insurance companies. Good 5-year outlook. Bit expensive at 19.4x PE. Has sometimes been in the 14-16x PE range, and that's a better long-term entry point.

Start a position now, and then look to double it if it drops 15-20%.

With its growth rate, a good spot to put new money to work.

Focused on efficiencies and growth. Looking to buy Travelers Canada, which would make it the fourth largest in Canada and give them good scale. Trades at 2.4x book value. Time to take some profit.

EPS was 65c, missing estimates of 71c; revenue of $1.00B missed estimates of $1.02B. Written premiums rose 9.6%. Combined ratio was 94.5% (more accidents and catastrophe losses). EPS was flat year over year, ROE was 10.3%. Book value rose 16%. The stock is still up 10% on the year, and despite the decline this is not a disaster. But a miss is a miss, and investors may also be selling to move into more exciting areas now that the market is rallying a bit. The outlook still calls for very decent earnings growth over the next two years.
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Strong balance sheet, buying smaller businesses. Has an opportunity in front of them that the likes of MFC do not. 

Has done exceptionally well. Best technology platform in the space. Great management. In November, it's allowed to be taken out if a suitor comes calling. Lofty premium will remain until then. Would make sense for IFC to buy it.

Predictable. Smaller P&C insurance. Pretty stable chart. ROE has an exceptionally bright future because of how well the business is run. Topline growth over 9% in recent earnings, and really good expense management. Yield is 1.21%.

Depends on what percentage it makes of your portfolio, plus what your cost base is. #1 competitor to DFY is IFC. The industry is consolidating more. DFY might have a leg up on IFC, as DFY is smaller and can buy a few more things in Canada.

Cost inflation and extreme weather give him pause in this area. Both well-run businesses, but inclined to stay away. The sector poses some risks.

Recent insurance losses (flooding) in Toronto will be hard on the business, but overall long term prospects are good. Climate change actually good for the business (more premiums). Likes business, but does not own shares (prefers Intact). 

P&C business. Making a ton of money. Great business, good valuation. Will probably be acquired at some point. His insurance play remains BRK.B.