Opinions
Brian Madden
Definity Financial
DFY-T
PARTIAL BUY
Jul 22, 2024
Stock price when the opinion was issued
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Depends on what percentage it makes of your portfolio, plus what your cost base is. #1 competitor to DFY is IFC. The industry is consolidating more. DFY might have a leg up on IFC, as DFY is smaller and can buy a few more things in Canada.
Cost inflation and extreme weather give him pause in this area. Both well-run businesses, but inclined to stay away. The sector poses some risks.
Our PAST TOP PICK with DFY has triggered its stop at $56. To remain disciplined, we recommend covering the position at this time. Combined with our previous guidance, this will result in a net investment gain of 37%.
EPS was 65c, missing estimates of 71c; revenue of $1.00B missed estimates of $1.02B. Written premiums rose 9.6%. Combined ratio was 94.5% (more accidents and catastrophe losses). EPS was flat year over year, ROE was 10.3%. Book value rose 16%. The stock is still up 10% on the year, and despite the decline this is not a disaster. But a miss is a miss, and investors may also be selling to move into more exciting areas now that the market is rallying a bit. The outlook still calls for very decent earnings growth over the next two years.
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Recent insurance losses (flooding) in Toronto will be hard on the business, but overall long term prospects are good. Climate change actually good for the business (more premiums). Likes business, but does not own shares (prefers Intact).