Costco Wholesale

COST-Q

Likes it, but prefers Dollar General. Valuation worries him at 34x. PEG ratio is 3.5, which is high for him. Future is very solid.

Loves it, but prefers the dollar stores. Somewhat recession resilient, though not as much as dollar stores or Walmart. Has done extremely well. Valuation is 35x earnings for 10% growth rate. Concerned about valuation and where we are in the cycle.

A great retailer. E-Commerce giants like Amazon and Alibaba are taking market share, but Costco is doing well. Their value proposition is great. Their online is working well. Renewal rates for their subscription is at 90%, so it is a good edge they have.

What metric did you use to buy this? He bought this in Q4 2008. It wasn't a bargain, but actually went up that year. He bought it because he expected them, as they grew revenues, to eventually get gross margin from merchandise and not only memberships. This took three years to happen and have been making money this way since. They keep growing customers, because they have the lowest mark-ups on Earth. The risk is that Millennials prefer a competitive price vs. the lowest (Amazon) price. Will this switch when they age? COST also owns real estate in wealthy areas, and they run a pristine balance sheet. Workers own a lot of the company stock too. Incredibly managed.

Has done very well. Higher highs, higher lows. Keeps pushing above the 200 day MA. Defensive growth name. A bit expensive. Execution online has lagged. Other challenge is attracting millennial traffic. His preference is for Dollar General, but a decent name. Decent dividend of 1%.

A fine holding to keep. They have proven their membership and pricing model works and they can even thrive in the digital era -- even against Amazon.