Stockchase Opinions

Mark Jackson, CFA Canwel Building Materials Ltd. CWX-T HOLD Nov 15, 2005

Still thinks there's potential. Payout ratio is about 170% which cannot be sustained without a cut. Also had a one time charge of $2 million which would have left the payout ratio at 128% which is still too high. Have enough to sustain distributions for one or two quarters and hopefully improve their margins.
$3.310

Stock price when the opinion was issued

wholesale distributors
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WAIT

It broke out just prior to the equity deal they did. The balance sheet is considerably better now. It had improving price momentum. Good return on equity and they beat on their last quarter. It is not quite enough for him to own it yet.

DON'T BUY

[Caller concerned about over 9.2% dividend]. They are a distributor of wood products in Vancouver. They acquired a distributor in Hawaii. The issue is with the debt levels and payout ratio. There are onetime events like weather events in their favour. But until the debt and payout ratio comes down he would not own it.

TOP PICK

The CEO is superb. They are making some acquisitions in the US in hot markets. He likes the outlook. It is a place to park some money. Not a bad investment and dividend in a toppy market. There is commodity risk and weather risk in it, however. (Analysts’ target: $7.50).

BUY

Controlled by a Vancouver family who have done a good job of managing. Safe dividend, and he expects good growth numbers. Slightly levered. You're okay to own it. He needs to study this stock more. They have production in California, so he's not sure how tariffs--a nightmare to figure out in general--will effect them. Pays a 7.7% yield

DON'T BUY

This lumber distributor sells to the large retail outlets. He does not like their debt levels after an acquisition in the US and thinks this is holding the dividend from being increased. The distribution business is very competitive and he would prefer not to hold this.

DON'T BUY

He thinks it is fairly well run, but is concerned about the sustainability of the high dividend yield – especially in the cyclical sector of building products. He would like to see the debt reduced first. (Analysts’ price target is $7.90)

PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Nov 16/17, Down 21%) The housing market took a dip and this hurt the stock. He still owns it and thinks recent job creation will help their returns. They have not dropped their dividend yet. He hopes the earnings will increase to sustain the dividend. He will continue to hold it. Yield 11%.
DON'T BUY
A $400 million market cap company. Latest earnings were down 35% against only a fall of 3% in sales -- a red flag. Trading at 10 times PE and 11% ROE. If you get confidence in this it has good upside. He does not own it.
WAIT
Likes the CEO who buys the stock and is good at making acquisitions. The problem here is low lumber prices. The dividend is good but exceeds earnings and can't last. The lumber price will come back, so be patient. He's not worried about American housing.
COMMENT
It's illiquid. They've good managers, though, and the stock has moved up, maybe overextended. He likes the story, but it's too illiquid for him. Recent quarters have not been strong. This space had to become good operators when lumber prices went down, and is starting to find momentum with more housing starts.