Cenovus Energy (CVE.TO)

He eliminated his position in this a couple of months ago. Just did a $1.5 billion issue, and that is going to be used to maintain the dividend. Stock really hasn’t performed that well. The big oil sands companies have some problems ahead of them. If the oil price goes back to $75, these companies are okay, but what if oil only went back to $60? It almost looks like we are in a situation with oil where we were with gas, just in North America. We are in a period where oil is going to be relatively low, particularly in the oil sands. He would stay away from the big guys that have oil sands production, and go with the smaller guys that are maybe more flexible.

They are cutting CapX, cutting jobs and freezing wages, which are the right things. This is a sign of the times. She likes that they are getting in early and making sure that they manage that balance sheet. Unfortunately, she doesn’t know if it is going to be enough with what is going on right now. Have a “take or pay” contract with Inter Pipeline (IPL-T) which is one risk that is going to hurt their cash flow this year. Their transportation costs are going to increase because they don’t have the production growth to make up for those extra barrels that this requires. In a 2-4 year timeframe, it is a good quality company with lots of growth potential.

Some of the higher-quality and more liquid names in the energy space, such as this, one make sense. He is not sure where the immediate catalyst for this stock and energy are in the near term, but as supply conditions tighten a bit energy prices will start to move.

They have been a little delayed in putting out what they are going to do in 2015. Like a lot of them, he expects to see a CapX pullback and a hold on the dividend for now. Will probably have flattish production, and the payout ratio will probably drift a little high. The dividend is safe as long as oil prices don’t go down.

(A Top Pick Jan 15/14. Down 13.51%.) He is trying to look at what he wants to own for the long-term. This has underperformed in the last couple of years. Represents a good investment opportunity for the real, long-term investor. Good quality assets and a good quality management team. Yield of 4.32% is pretty safe.

Chart shows a big downturn. It is in a good place. Wait for the base building pattern to happen a little bit more and an uptick. He would be looking at a momentum indicator and typically uses a Relative Strength Index.

Over 5% divided. Not a pretty chart. It is hard to see support and resistance. Markets overshoot and over correct. There is an over correction right here.

Pounded like all the other stocks, making multi year lows. It is in panic mode. You are getting tax loss selling.

It has broken the level of support derived by the October low, so we are hitting lower lows and just doesn’t show signs of bottoming. Energy stocks come into a seasonal play more towards February. The trend is certainly lower.

(A Top Pick Oct 17/13. Down 13.47%.) It has been a pretty good performer in an oil environment. They have good production, refining capacity as well as some oil sands. Has a great management discipline of returning money to shareholders, and is reasonably diversified.

Sold his holdings in September. This is highly dependent on the oil prices in the very short term. A little bit on the quasi-integrated with some heavy oil. If oil were to go down to $60, this will probably go down less, but also has less upside. You can Hold if you own it, but it depends on your outlook for the price of oil. Thinks it will lag some of the others for upside when oil does recover.

You have to look at great companies because we don’t know where oil will go. This is one of them. They will have to rationalize their businesses and cut costs. This may involve cutting the dividend.

Even with WTI as $75 and natural gas at $3.50, he still models a payout ratio of about 132%, 2015 estimates. This is not a safe dividend.

Assuming that you don't own this and you are looking at where oil is and looking at the whole realm of oil companies out there, we don't really know where oil is going here. You don't want to buy something that has a lot of risks This is a good buy for the long-term. An ultraconservative way to play the oil market in these times, which are uneasy when it comes to oil.

What has scared him from owning this is the rising cost structure of the Christina Lake and Foster Creek oil sands projects as they got into the later stages of their life spans. Steam/oil ratios have gone up. Third-quarter earnings came out and were a big beat on expectations, in spite of some down time. This was a modest positive for the story. He is most interested in seeing, in the coming quarters, what their plan is for their fee simple lands. He is looking for $3 billion of value to be realized in a transaction similar to Encana (ECA-T) spinning out of Prairie Sky royalties.