
TSE:CTS
Stock was $3.70-ish prior to the rumour/confirmation of the strategic review.
The tech world has changed to the positive since then, fairly dramatically.
But the recent miss needs to be taken into account as well.
Plus, we need to believe management that the three big deals are on their way.
Currently 13X earnings, we think a proper multiple without all this 'noise' would be in the 17 to 18X range.
So assuming growth, and using forward consensus estimates, that gets us to $8.28, so on a present value discounted basis about $7.50 with no control premium applied.
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Recent selloff an overreaction; most companies are happy to have higher credit lines regardless of what else is going on.
They provide flexibility of course.
We think $8.50 to $9.50 would be an acceptable price for buyer and seller.
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Doesn't follow this much, but it's an M&A consolidator of IT service providers across North America and Europe. Are in a low-margin business, 5% EBITDA margin. Half of sales are hardware, the other half selling 3rd-party software. Also offering higher-margin ongoing services. Shares have been decimated, because the market didn't see synergies after acquisitions.
Insiders own 8% and there has been a small amount of net buying in the past six months.
There has been no news on the contracts. It is not likely they were cancelled yet, but that remains a possibility.
ENGH might be interested, or a US-cloud company.
However, we think the interest has come from private equity players, perhaps Thomas Bravo.
We would be OK owning some today.
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