Brendan CaldwellConstellation Software Inc.CSU.TOWATCHJun 24, 2026

Between February and April, looks to have put in a double bottom. Now in sideways trading range, appears to be bottoming out. Encouraging so far. Support seems in $2600-2700 range. Resistance probably $3000 to start; above that would be more a sign that a recovery trend is underway.

Hasn't aggressively turned up yet. Consolidating. So far, so good.

Canadian tech stocks look better than US ones; the latter are parabolic and overbought. This year, the chart is making gradual higher highs and higher lows. Not much momentum, but it's not bad. A value play.

He's been buying more. They face AI fears and questions over the next CEO. They are using AI in their existing businesses. They continue to buy companies. It's still great value.

Was a Canadian darling. The issue is that they don't have a dominant product. There's a fear that AI can replicate much of their software, like other stocks such as TRI. Is managed well.

Suffered from fears of AI disruption, so shares cut in half. Recent earnings, though, show 20% sales growth year over year, 6% organic growth while net income more than doubled. Sales and earnings beat. PE has risen from 15x to 18x since last Spring. Shares are seeing an uptrend.

Are different: CSU buys companies vs. Shopify which is a pure tech company. What PE do you want to pay for CSU? 25x? 20x? SHOP is great and continues to grow. The market perception of AI hurting these companies is wrong. Both are worth buying. He prefers CSU but buy it at a lower PE.

He likes Canadian tech, like this. The chart ran up until mid-2025, topping out, then headed down, and this year it's forming a base. It looks like it's breaking out now. There's hope. Not a bad chart. Leg in, but don't plunge into this.

It's insanely cheap. Is aggressively deploying capital to buy cheap companies, and are aggressively adding AI to their software. He sees double-digit earnings from years.

He bought recently at under $2500, now 20% higher. Still cheap. Once you become this big, can you keep recycling capital fast enough? Generates a ton of free cash. Don't chase here. He's not adding now. If you're a long-term holder, a pullback may be your opportunity.

SaaSpocalypse was blown way out of proportion. If I'm a business that needs to protect client data, I'm sticking with the professionals. But AI tools will help companies like this by employing fewer coders/engineers and increasing productivity.

Sharp drawdown on the AI-killing-software train, now starting to perk up. Second-biggest tech company in Canada, behind SHOP. Revenues are sticky, though growing slowly organically. Exceptional in deploying capital for acquisitions -- slowed down in last years, but reaccelerated in latest quarter. 

New initiative to take strategic long-term stakes in publicly traded software companies. Yield is 0.19%.

He just bought. It buys software businesses, and the price for those is a lot lower than a year ago. Doesn't agree that customers will rip and replace products with AI, especially with no tech support. One of the most interesting risk/reward opportunities today.

Historical valuation was in the 30s; today it's in the teens.

Trying to stabilize after the bigger downtrend. Hardware is working, but software's in a downtrend. Tradeable bounce, but he'd rather wait and catch a confirmed uptrend. He's worried of another leg lower after any bounce.

Another software chart in decay. Incredible capital allocator for so long, but AI is taking its toll. Even though some headline beats, the most important metric here is organic revenue growth (and it's continually shrinking).

Mea culpa, not a timely pick. The AI bear was let out of the cage almost immediately after this pick. Still holds because his firm just doesn't believe AI will totally disrupt these vertical-market software firms.