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Cognos (CSN.TO)

BUY
SCC is probing their financial statements on Revenue Allocation so the stock has dropped. Probably a good time to do some bottom feeding. He has been adding to his position.
DON'T BUY
In the bottom 1/4 of the database. Earnings have been shaved by about 3%. Earnings growth is expected to be modest.
SELL
There were a number of growth technology companies that were doing very, very well earlier this winter. This was not one of them. an under performer.
HOLD
Dropped on the news of an SEC investigation on revenue reporting. A bit risky. As far as he can tell, there will be no change to profitability or free cash flow. Good price.
DON'T BUY
Tech stocks have been under a lot of pressure. With the SEC investigation on accounting practices, not sure you should be going into this one at present. Trading at a high multiple of 20 X earnings.
DON'T BUY
Going through a rough time with a messy investigation. The poster child for Canadian software companies that have been incredibly successful. Trades at a premium. Finds the valuation is too high.
TOP PICK
Company is going through a transition to Cognos8 which is a really good product. Traction is there for the next couple of quarters. Great balance sheet and lots of cash.
DON'T BUY
Software in general is underperforming to some degree. 1st quarter were software companies does not tend to be a good one. This company has been underperforming to date which is another strike against them. A 3rd strike is that with the new RRSP legislation, investors are looking more on a global aspect.
DON'T BUY
Expensive to him. His model price is $33.62. A 14% negative differential.
DON'T BUY
The whole software area is a difficult environment. There are a number of suppliers and they are all beating each other into the ground. Has been a disappointment.
TOP PICK
Very well positioned in the business intelligence space. This is a consolidating space where large businesses are centralizing and this is the best company for that.
DON'T BUY
Has had an uptrend since 2001 and into 2005. It looks like there has been an ABC correction now. That might be it for the stock. We may be in an area of support.
BUY
A high quality name. Good growth company in the business intelligence segment of the market. It's a pretty fragmented market, so they can achieve a good growth profile. Have a very interesting family of products and software.
PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Jan 20/05. Down 17%.) Still likes. They missed the 1st quarter and their product introductions are really good. A little worried about the next quarter as their targets are a little ambitious.
DON'T BUY
This is a stock that's hitting new lows against a market that's rallying in the software stocks over the last short while. You don't want to own under performance.
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