CiscoCSCOHOLDNov 20, 2023Stock price when the opinion was issued
As of Jun 08, 2026. Market Open.
Kudos on that choice, because it's not been a market darling (since the dot-com bubble). Riding coattails of stronger players in the space, catching the halo effect. The old adage: "No one ever went broke taking a profit" -- good risk management.
Prefers, and owns, ANET.
Part of IT infrastructure, but $27B acquisition of Splunk really helped drive security business. Finally hit a new high (previous high was March 27, 2000). Phenomenal allocator of capital. Compelling buy. Every year, buys back stock and raises dividend.
Finally growing revenues again, he's looking for mid-high single-digit revenue growth. AI will bring a much higher recurring revenue stream. Its solutions are so embedded in businesses, he's not worried about clients trying to go it alone with AI.
Mostly hardware, but also getting into software security. It's finally gotten back to its breakeven price from the year 2000 :) Climbing higher, up 23% in last 12 months. Not on his buy list. He owns FIX, LRCX, and ADI. His tech exposure is ~10-20%.
Should do well. Only downside questions are whether it can keep up with demand, and whether it will be the prime provider within data centres? If they have the upper hand and pricing power, great. If not, they'll just trundle along with everybody else.
Lately, it's been getting new clients from competitors. It's been putting up stellar quarters. It had a strong 2025, but got hammered in December, surprisingly. But it is bouncing off lows. The On Balance Volume only now is moving higher. Lang thinks the sell off is ending. A few good days should see this rise, returning to its $80 highs, then up to $100 later this year.
Another play in Edge AI. Kinetic for Cities is Edge AI that you can put on sensors around a city for water, traffic, air, everything. Poster child for this application is Singapore. King of routers and switches, but Edge AI will be very intriguing for them. His 12-month price target is $75.50. Yield is 2.44%.
(Analysts’ price target is $71.54)
CSCO is seeing similar industry issues that other companies are seeing which essentially has been a buildup of product at end customers who are now focusing on deployment in the short-term as opposed to buying new product, alongside some general macro pressures. It is not a name that excites us a whole lot and has been appearing to lose market share to competitors over the years. With that said, as a large, slower growth company trading at 12X forward earnings and with a dividend, it might not be our 'favourite' name out there but hard for us to be overly critical of it at these levels as well. It has underperformed, and the recent earnings miss will likely keep it quiet for at least a couple of quarters. We would thus consider it OK but not good enough to add to at this time.
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