Capital Power (CPX.TO)

Starting to see the sector as a whole turn around. Ranks 9/10 on value, 8/10 on fundamentals. Quietly transforming from coal to lower carbon. Last quarter was strong, with earnings ahead of expectations. Solid performance in US assets. Still 10% upside from here, though taking some profit not a bad idea.

Active in M&A, so she's watching leverage closely. Balance sheet is strong enough to carry that. Dividend continues to grow, yielding just over 4%, and management confirms plans to increase it to 6% this year. 

Its 65% rise in 2024 was based on speculative rumours of data centres in Alberta. Need to see something concrete on that. She's concerned about the recent move since April. You'd do better owning ENB or PPL, which have more secure (as opposed to speculative) growth. Yield is 4.75%.

A bit volatile. Not a regulated distribution utility, it's a power generator. Divested from coal, now predominantly nat gas. Mostly in Alberta, a bit in US. Ran up (way too much) in 2024 due to vague rumours of data centres being built in Alberta; be cautious until we hear more.

She'd rather own a power generator with more consistent growth such as NPI or BEP.UN.

Renewable power assets all across the US and Canada. Natural gas is big for them; also wind, solar, and battery. Numbers reported this morning came out well ahead (by 17%) of consensus. Managed costs effectively in the quarter. Likes the management team. Yield is 5.11%.

In the fall, stock really moved up on excitement over data centres. He took his position from 6% down to 3%, rolling proceeds into NPI. But now it's at the top end of his buying range. 

Major US acquisition; his partner and son, Jamie, tells him there's a bucket of FCF in there. Haven't completed all their homework, but he suspects they'll buy more if it gets to ~$43-44.

He likes growth, and utilities don't usually provide that. Stock's down to just below 200-day MA, so watch that. Defensive, given what's happening around the world. Only 5-6% earnings growth beyond 2025. May make sense for income investor looking for yield. Yield is 5.5%.

Next downside potential is ~$49 (the 200-day or 40-week MA). The big runup on the chart is part of the whole AI derivative trade. There was support around $60, and it busted through that by 15% in one day on Monday's DeepSeek news. Uptrend has been broken, the bounce is over, downtrend likely by another 10% to resume and head to $49.

You could sell a bit here and buy back around $49. If you're looking to buy new, just sit on your hands and wait till then.

Took off in second half of this year due to Alberta government announcing data centres. But it's only a letter of intent at this stage. Alberta makes sense because its power plants are under-utilized and power is cheap. She wants more clarity on whether tech companies will want to build there.

Likes the assets and growing diversification. Stock took off on speculation. Wise to take some profits.

Not a bad idea. Whole sector has done really well on AI themes. Issued equity at $58 to improve balance sheet for accretive M&A. Good company. Dividend's not what it was, as the price is so much higher. 

You can see from the chart that taking profits is wise, but TD may not be the best choice. Choose BMO instead.

Owns it in his income growth fund. Very good asset base, high regard for management. Excitement around potential of data centres. Getting extended, he trimmed by about 1/3 once it got over $50. Good hold for the dividend.

Without question, a parabolic chart. Nothing wrong with that (up is good, down is bad), but technical indicators on a weekly chart probably say it's pretty overbought. Look at the 200-day MA, and if the stock's too much over 15% then you know it's overbought. Doesn't mean that today it pulls back, but does mean that it's ripe. How much it pulls back is the question, could go sideways.

Be cautious as to how much more profitability in the near term.

Has done very well lately; not normal for a dividend-payer to march up like this. He's holding right now, but waiting to sell it off. Have to be very cautious if you buy, could lose 10-15% very quickly. Somewhat predictable. The 5-10 year chart has lots of volatility, but not like a tech stock. All-time, record highs; not a bad holding.