Stephen GroffCanadian Pacific RailCP.TOCOMMENTSep 07, 2016

Buy the good names when they come to you Freight recession is likely over, at least on the supply side. Interest rates and tariffs are still headwinds. Always potential for merger between UNP and NSC, a concern. 

Synergies from the KSU acquisition. Nearshoring from Mexico. Unique 3-country rail network. Really good operating leverage, volumes have returned in the second half of the year. Great long-term compounder. Beat on Q2. Trades at 18x PE for 2028, growing ~16%. That PEG ratio really works, with not a lot of risk. Yield is 0.87%.

Likes that it's the only rail that seamlessly connects Canada, US, and Mexico. Competitors can't compete against that network. Built for the theme of nearshoring. Steady growth. About 12% earnings growth through 2028. Lots of upside to the 2023 merger -- higher margins, cashflow, and market share. 

Easing of trade tensions could unlock greater freight volumes. Rising 200-day MA, share price well above. Yield is 0.86%.

The chart is entering short-term resistance, but has been in an uptrend since January. Expects it to break out. Own long term.

He's stayed away from companies he thinks will be potentially threatened by CUSMA negotiations. Nothing's likely to happen in the near term, but Trump can do anything at any time. Headlines can disrupt traffic.

Likes them for the longer term. Businesses are 100+ years old, will be around for the next 100 years. Can be hit by trade, tariffs, harvests, wildfires, labour unrest -- it's all just noise. Value-added services to customers. Much cheaper than to transport by road. Long-term growth rates are not super high, about 4-5%. 

Last time he looked, a large language model couldn't replace a railroad ;)

It just broke out, above $117 after being rangebound. Something's change. There's new interest in the stock

Q1 really good, headwinds dissipating. Maintained full-year guidance. Multiple isn't horrible. Consolidation in industry might hinder growth. Nice growth of 13.5% for 2026-2028. Buy here? No. Wait for a pullback. Benefits from AI on efficiency. Long-term boon to anyone's portfolio.

All rails are suffering a recession, but is it over? Rails are cyclical to the Canadian economy. She feels were getting closer to a recession. She prefers CN to CP because of PE and dividend. CP's valuation reflects the Kansas City merger and its synergies, so higher. She owns no rails. She would buy CN on a dip.

Hit by tariff narrative, but tariffs didn't actually hit the fundamentals. Integrated nature of rails in NA means that tariffs are largely irrelevant. Could see some weakness during CUSMA negotiations, but long term it's been a mistake not to add on that weakness.

The KSU acquisition gives them an advantage with its entire North American footprint. Seeing signs that entire NA freight market is tightening. Industrial side of the economy seems to be doing well, much of it due to both fiscal and AI data centre spending in USA and Canada. 

Should benefit from higher commodity prices. At inflection point of strong quarterly results. A long-term hold. Yield is 0.92%.

He'd put $$ in CP for now. Generally, they move in the same direction. CP is more in the driver's seat now, realizing synergies from the KSU acquisition.

Likes UNP more.

Good long-term business. Geographic footprint makes it a great railway. He's still actively buying.

He'd be a buyer today, largely on valuation and where we are in the cyclical recovery. Volumes have been really tough. Industrial goods economy has been softer than thought. A lot of speed-dating has been going on in the rail sector, so the sector might be more condensed in future.

In the midst of ongoing trade discussions, near-shoring is where we're going. Only single line in NA that runs from Canada-US-Mexico -- this is a major win for efficiency. It also has east-west, which helps with Atlantic-Pacific trade. 

If energy prices are going to remain elevated, rails are much more competitive than trucking. Sector broke out in January, this pullback is a great entry point. Big cash-generating business, in early stages of a structural change. Yield is 0.83%.

Good long-term buying opportunity right now. Tariff concerns last year, with some pressure abated from SCOTUS ruling. Consider diversifying between both CP and CNR.

Whatever comes out of CUSMA will be positive, because at least there will be an agreement. It's the unknown that creates volatility.