Costco Wholesale CorporationCOSTBUYJan 05, 2026Stock price when the opinion was issued
As of Sep 10, 2026. Market Open.
World's third-largest retailer. High traffic, repeat business, superior same-store sales growth in high single digits. Likes the recurring membership fees, with ~92% retention rate. Likes the procurement clout and narrow assortment of goods. Pretty good gross margins of 11%, and ~30% ROE.
Seems to trade at a high multiple, and this scares people. But it's compounded at 17-18% since the IPO in 1985. Any day that ends in "y" is a good day to buy. Yield is 0.64%.
Has traded at a high valuation pretty much since it went public. Good luck trying to pick a perfect valuation entry point. He invests in companies that can invest cashflows at high rates of return over decades. Stealing market share from low- and middle-end grocery stores. Adding services, such as Medicare plans in the US. Same-store sales growth 7-8% a year.
Deserves to trade at a high multiple because of business durability over the long term. Yield is 0.60%.
Both great companies, but both very expensive. COST is over 50x PE, and WMT's in the 40s. Fairly low-margin model. Reliant on the consumer, and everyone's affected when that consumer is struggling.
WMT reported today. Earnings were OK, but projections on future quarters were tough. High fuel prices were highlighted.
He partially sold his holding. Technical analyst Larry Williams says that COST is now undervalued. COST's long-term cycle peaked in early 2025 and has sunk since then. His cycle forecast predicts COST to rally again, a screaming buy. His short-term cycle research expects COST to rally into late February then pull back, then rally in June. It was just upgraded today on strength in its core business, but most stocks rallied today.