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Costco Wholesale CorporationCOSTBUYMar 22, 2023Stock price when the opinion was issued
As of Jun 18, 2026. Market Open.
Both great companies, but both very expensive. COST is over 50x PE, and WMT's in the 40s. Fairly low-margin model. Reliant on the consumer, and everyone's affected when that consumer is struggling.
WMT reported today. Earnings were OK, but projections on future quarters were tough. High fuel prices were highlighted.
No valuation concerns, as it's been expensive every day he's looked at it over 30 years. Compounded shareholder total return of 17.5% since its IPO. Third-largest retailer in the world. Procurement clout and supply-chain efficiencies produce gross margins of 11%. Still expanding store count. Periodically increases membership fees. Superior same-store sales performance driven by traffic and basket size.
Lots of ways to win. Yield is 0.59%.
A good name to hold in consumer staples when people panic about market volatility, recession, or the like. Defensive plus steady growth. Runup since January, now trending sideways. Business model is what makes it stand out.
Sees ~11-12% upside from here. Of course, that could change. Ranks 10/10 for her.
Williams is bullish, based on historic market patterns, specifically 2009 when markets bottomed then bounced after the 2008 crash. In 2008 and 2022, the Nasdaq was much weaker than the Dow and S&P, though root causes are very different. In 2009, the market bottomed and went on a multi-year run. 2023 won't necessarily repeat that recovery, but if this pattern continues, it will be good for tech. Williams notes that major rallies and declines happen in the same times of the year. He sees these patterns in the S&P, Dow and Nasdaq charts historically back to 1962-3, which sees monster moves higher. He sees Easter rallies in retail between late March and early April. The leader here is Costco. The chart shows Costco and Walmart bottoming first among the big box retailers then recovering first. Costco rallies 75% of the time in this point of the cycle, lasting three months. Costco is coming out of a seasonally weak period with lower lows in March vs. the start of the year. But in 2023, Costco is doing better than its seasonal pattern.