Costco Wholesale CorporationCOSTBUYMar 22, 2023Stock price when the opinion was issued
As of Sep 11, 2026. Market Open.
World's third-largest retailer. High traffic, repeat business, superior same-store sales growth in high single digits. Likes the recurring membership fees, with ~92% retention rate. Likes the procurement clout and narrow assortment of goods. Pretty good gross margins of 11%, and ~30% ROE.
Seems to trade at a high multiple, and this scares people. But it's compounded at 17-18% since the IPO in 1985. Any day that ends in "y" is a good day to buy. Yield is 0.64%.
Has traded at a high valuation pretty much since it went public. Good luck trying to pick a perfect valuation entry point. He invests in companies that can invest cashflows at high rates of return over decades. Stealing market share from low- and middle-end grocery stores. Adding services, such as Medicare plans in the US. Same-store sales growth 7-8% a year.
Deserves to trade at a high multiple because of business durability over the long term. Yield is 0.60%.
Both great companies, but both very expensive. COST is over 50x PE, and WMT's in the 40s. Fairly low-margin model. Reliant on the consumer, and everyone's affected when that consumer is struggling.
WMT reported today. Earnings were OK, but projections on future quarters were tough. High fuel prices were highlighted.
Williams is bullish, based on historic market patterns, specifically 2009 when markets bottomed then bounced after the 2008 crash. In 2008 and 2022, the Nasdaq was much weaker than the Dow and S&P, though root causes are very different. In 2009, the market bottomed and went on a multi-year run. 2023 won't necessarily repeat that recovery, but if this pattern continues, it will be good for tech. Williams notes that major rallies and declines happen in the same times of the year. He sees these patterns in the S&P, Dow and Nasdaq charts historically back to 1962-3, which sees monster moves higher. He sees Easter rallies in retail between late March and early April. The leader here is Costco. The chart shows Costco and Walmart bottoming first among the big box retailers then recovering first. Costco rallies 75% of the time in this point of the cycle, lasting three months. Costco is coming out of a seasonally weak period with lower lows in March vs. the start of the year. But in 2023, Costco is doing better than its seasonal pattern.