Costco Wholesale CorporationCOSTSTRONG BUYSep 25, 2020Stock price when the opinion was issued
As of Oct 01, 2026. Market Open.
Last Thursday they reported a healthy top and bottom line beat, 15% earnings growth, worldwide membership renewals increased to 89%, executive memberships doubled to a record level, now accounting for 75.6% of all sales. But total membership growth slowed again. Membership under age 40 has grown nearly 60% since Covid. Web business, small appliances, home furnishings are growing. He hasn't a convincing story from management about how to get younger customers who signed up online to renew. Trades at 40x PE.
World's third-largest retailer. High traffic, repeat business, superior same-store sales growth in high single digits. Likes the recurring membership fees, with ~92% retention rate. Likes the procurement clout and narrow assortment of goods. Pretty good gross margins of 11%, and ~30% ROE.
Seems to trade at a high multiple, and this scares people. But it's compounded at 17-18% since the IPO in 1985. Any day that ends in "y" is a good day to buy. Yield is 0.64%.
Has traded at a high valuation pretty much since it went public. Good luck trying to pick a perfect valuation entry point. He invests in companies that can invest cashflows at high rates of return over decades. Stealing market share from low- and middle-end grocery stores. Adding services, such as Medicare plans in the US. Same-store sales growth 7-8% a year.
Deserves to trade at a high multiple because of business durability over the long term. Yield is 0.60%.
It reported great numbers yesterday. New customers will stick with them after Covid. Analysts keep underestimating the staying power of these Covid stocks. The stock went down after strong earnings, because analysts are skeptical about the duration of the pandemic. Memberships rise 5% annually. They have excellent managers who pay their staff well. With colder weather, their patio heaters will sell well, he predicts, because Costco sells it cheaper than Amazon. Let's face it: America has royally screwed up controlling the virus, so expects these Covid stocks to endure.