Costco Wholesale CorporationCOSTCOMMENTMar 16, 2017Stock price when the opinion was issued
As of Sep 11, 2026. Market Open.
World's third-largest retailer. High traffic, repeat business, superior same-store sales growth in high single digits. Likes the recurring membership fees, with ~92% retention rate. Likes the procurement clout and narrow assortment of goods. Pretty good gross margins of 11%, and ~30% ROE.
Seems to trade at a high multiple, and this scares people. But it's compounded at 17-18% since the IPO in 1985. Any day that ends in "y" is a good day to buy. Yield is 0.64%.
Has traded at a high valuation pretty much since it went public. Good luck trying to pick a perfect valuation entry point. He invests in companies that can invest cashflows at high rates of return over decades. Stealing market share from low- and middle-end grocery stores. Adding services, such as Medicare plans in the US. Same-store sales growth 7-8% a year.
Deserves to trade at a high multiple because of business durability over the long term. Yield is 0.60%.
Both great companies, but both very expensive. COST is over 50x PE, and WMT's in the 40s. Fairly low-margin model. Reliant on the consumer, and everyone's affected when that consumer is struggling.
WMT reported today. Earnings were OK, but projections on future quarters were tough. High fuel prices were highlighted.
This model is fantastic. Basically, they make nothing on the merchandise they sell and 100% of their profitability comes from membership fees. Retailers are out of fashion right now, especially brick and mortar ones, because of the new age of ordering online and e-commerce as well as border tax implications. Only about 25% of their merchandise comes from outside the US borders, so they are somewhat insulated. People pay up for it, so the PE is somewhere in the high 20s. If they continue doing what they are doing, a mid-20s multiple is reasonable. He would not be comfortable paying this multiple for his clients.