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Costco Wholesale CorporationCOSTWEAK BUYSep 30, 2014Stock price when the opinion was issued
As of Jun 16, 2026. Market Open.
Both great companies, but both very expensive. COST is over 50x PE, and WMT's in the 40s. Fairly low-margin model. Reliant on the consumer, and everyone's affected when that consumer is struggling.
WMT reported today. Earnings were OK, but projections on future quarters were tough. High fuel prices were highlighted.
No valuation concerns, as it's been expensive every day he's looked at it over 30 years. Compounded shareholder total return of 17.5% since its IPO. Third-largest retailer in the world. Procurement clout and supply-chain efficiencies produce gross margins of 11%. Still expanding store count. Periodically increases membership fees. Superior same-store sales performance driven by traffic and basket size.
Lots of ways to win. Yield is 0.59%.
A good name to hold in consumer staples when people panic about market volatility, recession, or the like. Defensive plus steady growth. Runup since January, now trending sideways. Business model is what makes it stand out.
Sees ~11-12% upside from here. Of course, that could change. Ranks 10/10 for her.
Whenever we have an experience with something we tend to use that to judge the future. You may not want to pay double what you paid for Costco last time, but if their earnings have doubled then it may be warranted. Costco will respond well to earnings. It is selling to $90k income customers average and their memberships are a recurring revenue. It is trading at about 180% of the S&P multiple so if things go bad, high multiple stocks have a lot of air under them.