Barry Schwartz Canadian National R.R. CNR-T WATCH Mar 03, 2025

As part of the CP/CNR oligopoly, it will always make money. Not even AI can make rails obsolete anytime soon. Very capital intensive -- operating costs, unionized workers, equipment. So FCF as percentage of revenue is not that amazing. Even with pullback today, still trades ~18-20x PE. Not overly expensive, but not cheap either.

Probably OK if you have a long-term view and want reasonable stability, grow as fast as the economy, get some efficiencies along the way, and collect the dividend. But it's not for him.

Small position. Not a great-looking chart. Thinking of selling. A potential candidate to raise cash in his portfolio.

Critical piece of the supply chain. Still remains a dominant player in the vast network linking Canada and the US. Rough Q4 from labour strikes and extreme weather. Yield ~3.4%.

Stable, long-term asset, but facing margin headwinds from rising costs and lower productivity. Increased competition from CP-KSU merger.

CP has more catalysts from the Kansas City merger, and a better growth rate. Both are getting more attractive. If we get the all clear on the economy, both names will be decent entry points. Though optimistic, he's still a bit afraid, and wouldn't step in just yet.

It's been a struggle holding this for years. The dividend continues to grow. With more trade, will be more transport by rails which is 300% more efficient than truck. Trades at a cheap 17x PE. Add some now, more later. If we don't trade with the US, we will be shipping to the coasts to export abroad.

Negatively impacted by trade. Economically sensitive. Likes the business. Margins and cashflow are great for the rails. Constructive longer term, once tariff issues get sorted. He prefers CP.

Is watching it after falling to current levels. The rails track GDP levels. CN boasts a slightly lower PE and higher ROE than CP, but are paying much more in price-to book than CP, but you get more. Overall, it evens out slightly in CP's favour. You can buy some shares now and more if it falls further.

Something she's looking at now. Higher yield, lower valuation. Has come up significantly in the past week or two with the market run. If it went back down to $125, she'd definitely be interested. Stable, not easily replicable. Consistent cashflow that supports the dividend. Still the cheapest way to transport goods. Prefers it to CP.

He got stopped out, broke support. Can't be all that bullish on it until it returns to above $150.