Christine Poole Canadian National R.R. CNR-T BUY Feb 20, 2025

Chart for CP looks better and fundamentals work. When those 2 factors go hand in hand, it's quite compelling. CP has outperformed CNR.

He holds CP, which has excellent management and the most unique footprint of any rail in NA. Tariff uncertainty impacts CP the most, but he decided to hold on and buy a bit more if it does get hit.

Stock didn't perform the way he wanted it to, he sold. Fundamentals weren't going in the right direction. Warned on earnings many times. Bought back stock with debt. Cashflow not strong. Stock's fallen a lot, could be interesting to a new buyer, as he's bullish on the stock and on rails long term.

Owns both, core holdings. No one's building any more rails. Cheaper to ship commodities by rail than any other way. If an economic slowdown, traffic and volumes will slow down but it's still a pretty steady business. 

If the trade war goes on, everything gets more expensive and these two will be impacted negatively. But these events are always temporary. Trade wars are not good for inflation or the economy with US mid-term elections only 2 years away. He's trusting that rational minds will prevail.

As part of the CP/CNR oligopoly, it will always make money. Not even AI can make rails obsolete anytime soon. Very capital intensive -- operating costs, unionized workers, equipment. So FCF as percentage of revenue is not that amazing. Even with pullback today, still trades ~18-20x PE. Not overly expensive, but not cheap either.

Probably OK if you have a long-term view and want reasonable stability, grow as fast as the economy, get some efficiencies along the way, and collect the dividend. But it's not for him.

Small position. Not a great-looking chart. Thinking of selling. A potential candidate to raise cash in his portfolio.

Critical piece of the supply chain. Still remains a dominant player in the vast network linking Canada and the US. Rough Q4 from labour strikes and extreme weather. Yield ~3.4%.

Stable, long-term asset, but facing margin headwinds from rising costs and lower productivity. Increased competition from CP-KSU merger.

CP has more catalysts from the Kansas City merger, and a better growth rate. Both are getting more attractive. If we get the all clear on the economy, both names will be decent entry points. Though optimistic, he's still a bit afraid, and wouldn't step in just yet.