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Opinions Barry Schwartz
Canadian Natural RsrcsCNQ.TOBUYJul 18, 2024
Barry SchwartzStock price when the opinion was issued
As of Aug 25, 2026. Market Open.
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Oil reserves in a safe haven. Well run. If peace breaks out in the Middle East, all the energy names could retrace somewhat; if conflict escalates, then oil will run and you should take profits along the way.
If you're looking at a 3-10 year investment, by all means buy some energy here. But if you're looking for a 3-6 month trade, you have to be careful with these politically charged components of the market.
He can't tell you where the price of oil is going. He does know that demand continues to increase. One of the best capital allocators in the O&G space. Decades and decades of reserves. Increased dividend for 25-26 consecutive years.
For a generalist, long-term investor, trust the management of the quality leader. When oil turns down, this name will hold up better. If there was a pullback for no good reason, he'd buy more. Be patient and wait for your opportunity.
Barry Schwartz
His go-to name in the energy space. The oilsands operators gush cash (and will for a long time), which gives them lots of options. Income and growth. Valuation has kept him from adding right now.
Chris BlumasThe stock has done very well and it pays a 3.4% dividend. Benefits from the higher oil price. Is her top choice in Canadian oil.
Christine PooleThe question was on his preference between Suncor and CNQ. He would side with Suncor since it has more upside and CNQ's price is approaching fair value. Suncor has underperformed over the past week with the CEO stepping down. He had guided the company to a major turn-around. If the next CEO can continue to run the company as well as it has been running then he sees a 40% upside two years out.
Her favourite in the space. Premier assets. Will benefit from natural gas prices should they ever recover. Management has never cut the dividend, no matter the environment for oil.
Rebecca TeltscherGreat company and he's made some $$ in it. That said, 80% of the variability will be the price of oil. Oil is jumping all over (to say the least ;). Thinks oil will stay up here, and CNQ should do fairly well. He's comfortable riding out the cyclicality, but have it as just one part of a diversified portfolio.
Tim ReganIf you're an O&G investor, this should be a staple in your portfolio. Bit of a misstep last quarter. High-quality name. Fairly valued here, but one to just hold.
John Stephenson
It took a while for the TransMountain pipeline to get full. How long does it take to build a pipeline. CNQ is the first he'd buy and the last he'd sell. Very well managed, has little debt and returns capital to shareholders. Don't own it for the hopes that a new pipeline will be built this decade.
It took a while for the TransMountain pipeline to get full. How long does it take to build a pipeline. CNQ is the first he'd buy and the last he'd sell. Very well managed, has little debt and returns capital to shareholders. Don't own it for the hopes that a new pipeline will be built this decade.
Long-term outlook for crude oil is bearish. When he looks at the forward price of crude past 2030, it's in the $50s (and could get into $40s depending on supply dynamics).
Short term, sure, buy dips in the energy space. Is this a name he'd be comfortable buying here and holding for 5-10 years? Absolutely not.
In the short term, one stock will lead and one will lag. It's not something he really focuses on because he's a long-term holder, not a trader. Great assets with long-term life, wall of free cashflow, incredible management, and Murray Edwards still owns a gigantic stake in the company.
Sees many more years of share buybacks and growing production. Gushing money right now, so share buybacks make a lot of sense, especially if production is going to grow over the long term.
Wildcard is oil and natural gas prices. Oil above $80 or even $70 is very profitable for CNQ. Stock's run up a lot, so perhaps investors are rotating into cheaper alternatives. Yield is 4+%.