Stockchase Opinions

James Hodgins Clearwater Seafoods Inc. CLR-T DON'T BUY Nov 27, 2018

Likes it. Excellent managers. But they've run into problems, including a big acquisition a few years ago that's fallen short of revenue expectations. Another one, they took on a lot of debt, which still worries him.
$5.900

Stock price when the opinion was issued

Financial Services
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WATCH

Is it going to break up or break down? He likes stocks that base for a while and then break out. The sector has been weak but is now starting to get its legs. You may want to take a stab at this one although it has not broken its down trend yet.

DON'T BUY

He exited this about 9 months ago after a couple of bad quarters. He thinks the majority owners, who hold over 50%, will likely look to take this private at some time. They have missed several targets lately and he does not like the debt levels as they may trigger covenants in the future.

PAST TOP PICK

(A Top Pick Aug 29/17, Down 46%) He sold earlier in the year. They have a fair amount of debt and people thought they had monopolies but recently there were a couple of cases with licenses being awarded to other groups like first nations. Investors got worried about the balance sheet.

DON'T BUY

They used to hold this, but sold it a year ago following a couple of choppy earnings quarters. They had taken on sizable debt on an acquisition and have yet to see the fishing volume be in line with expectations of the street. They recently reported 5 times leverage on the balance sheet despite better earnings. This is not something they are interested in.

WAIT

He doesn’t think the new tariffs will hurt the stock because they sell into Europe and Asia. However, the US has opened a lot of fishing areas, which has significantly depressed clam prices. The Canadian government also took away one of Clearwater’s clam licenses and gave it to an indigenous nation. However, there were ethical issues in that process and the license is coming back up for bids. In the meantime, it is going back to Clearwater for a year. That will help. In general, it is a good company that is facing a lot of headwinds. It also has a lot of debt. He isn’t ready to buy YET. He wants to see a turnaround in the pricing of their products.

WATCH

Chart consolidates once in a while. The last one was sideways. This year it's seen a tame uptrend, and is on the verge of breaking the larger downtrend. The lows and highs are getting higher. Watch it--it could break out.

WAIT

It has moved up. There has not been a major resistance level for it to break through. It is a showme story, though. Wait for it to get through $6 before getting in.

DON'T BUY
He used to favour this stock. Its challenge--and demise--is the debt it takes to operate this kind of company, like the costs of clam vessels. The balance sheet got hit. Now, CLR is recovering, but you don't want to own a company with heavy debt at this point in the cycle.
DON'T BUY
Corporate debt level? Companies need working capital to grow. Shareholders want to participate as much as possible, so they prefer the company to use debt. Too much debt can be challenging for cyclical stocks. CLR-T debt service is challenging. With sales growth expected to be lower next year, it too is challenging. Net debt to equity has improved to D+ in his grading. A stretched balance sheet with 2.6 times debt-equity. They seem to have strapped on a lot of debt. He thinks there are better opportunities.