CONNACHER OIL AND GAS LIMITED (CLC.TO) Buy,…

CONNACHER OIL AND GAS LIMITED (CLC.TO)

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BUY ON WEAKNESS

Heavy oil. Refining side is a relatively small part of their business. Most of its drive is from the oil sands side on their Seal area. Investors are expecting very quick production growth giving good cash flow.

BUY

Heavy oil out west. Just moving into production with their first project. Well run. Heavy oil projects are coming in on time and on budget. Reasonably priced at a bit of a discount to its NAV. If oil prices continue high, NAV’s for heavy oil producers will move up fairly dramatically in the next few years.

BUY

Had a very good run. Managed to get into the tar sands and have good prospects there. Probably in a buying range. Good management.

HOLD

Bringing up a new heavy oil project and bring in it on in a modular system. Costs have been very high with labour and materials steel. They are now getting to the point of getting the modular system to work. As they ramp up production and if oil prices stay strong, it should go back through the old time highs.

DON'T BUY

Ramped up production on pod 1 to 10,000 barrels and have made application for the 2nd pod to be built. The only small public company that he can see in the oil sands patch that is up and running. However, oil sands is a very high capital cost business and is generally thought to need very big size.

DON'T BUY

Issues with increased costs, things that are taking time. Also environment issues add increased costs to meet the obligations.

COMMENT

Suffering like many juniors that are failing to be recognized. Oil/gas equity market has been tough and it is going to affect the seniors first and will gradually work its way down to some of the juniors. This one is heavy oil and their netbacks are going to be lower than some of the other producers. Increasing its production fairly dramatically. Market is just failing to give value to it.

COMMENT

Developed an oil sands play, the Great Divide. Also some gas production and a refinery in the US making it a mini integrated company with a hedge on gas prices. Great Divide is still in early stages. Company falls into the market that is not so enamoured with companies with limited potentials as a takeout candidate. Very attractive asset and a strong technical team but the market is not sure how to treat it.

BUY

You are in the oil sands with a junior, which is interesting. There is also ownership in a well run company in Argentina, which has had a lot of success. At these levels, it is probably a pretty decent entry point.

BUY

An oil sands play and it is starting to get some production going. Wouldn't wade in as it still has some issues but you could participate in a small way.

WATCH

Likes the consolidation period that this has been in. You can start to do a move once it breaks out about $4. Prefers gassy plays over oil.

BUY

Worth looking at. Has some conventional production but it is an oil sands play. Has been beaten up lately, so valuation is attractive.

DON'T BUY

Chart shows a very explosive bull market in 05. This is when you would like to own the stock. It cool down in 06 and has done nothing since then.

HOLD

Starting to ramp up the production from their heavy oil SAG-D project. Also have natural gas reserves as well as a refinery in the US. As they ramp up production and go to 2nd and 3rd phases over the next few years, the stock could go up materially.

HOLD

Over time, costs have been running out of control. As they can prove they can do these cookie cutters number of projects, the stock goes higher.

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CONNACHER OIL AND GAS LIMITED (CLC.TO)